How To Profit, Before The Race Starts…
By the end of this case study you’ll understand exactly how I made £102 profit on this horse race, before the start. Even if you’ve never heard of Betfair trading before.
Several years ago I was in that position, when I stumbled across Betfair trading. With an exchange account already, I thought it wouldn’t hurt to give it a go… I was wasting money each week having a punt anyway.
Since then you may have seem me featured on the Betfair homepage as part of their pro traders campaign. To find out more about me and my story you can check out the tab above, but for now let’s have a look at this trade and how I ended up making a killing before the race even started.
Before we carry on: don’t be scared by the interface above… that’s just the trading software I use, it’s quite simple once you’ve looked around.
What Is Betfair Trading?
Just about everyone is confused by ‘Trading’ on Betfair at first glance.
So, to avoid that, here is a very simple explanation;
Trading is a form of ‘Cashing out’
By correctly predicting which direction the price will move, you’re able to seal a profit on the betting exchange before the event even occurs.
See my two bets to the left. By betting on this horse to win the race at 6.60 and betting on it to lose at 6.00 I was able to make a £9.90 profit, regardless of who won the race.
How was this worked out?
By subtracting the Backers Stake from the initial Stake, and subtracting the Liability from the Profit you can see there is £9.90 left in both cases. So if the horse wins or loses, we get to keep £9.90. Cool right?
Just to make sure…
Just in-case that wasn’t clear, lets look at the settled bets below;
What’s Left ran in the 3m Handicap Chase at Exeter on the 8th of October.
You can see the opposite bets matched against each-other; £108.90 – £99.00 = £9.90
You can also see the opposite outcomes matched against each-other;
£554.40 – £544.50 = £9.90 (you’ll notice Betfair removed 0.50 as their commission)
So by correctly predicting where the price will move, we win. No matter where the horse comes, before the start of the race!
I know what you’re thinking…. what if the price goes the other way?
And you’re right, you’d lose a similar amount. But here’s the beauty of trading bets…
You only need to be partially right to win. And if you can do that more than half the time you’re on your way to creating a consistent income, probably from watching a sport you enjoy!
There are many different regular patterns in the markets. As with everything; human behaviour is often quite repetitive, we behave in the same way again and again.
Once you’ve found some consistency in the markets it’s just a case of turning up the stakes! (and the profits of course). This was the main appeal to me, as unlike a normal job you don’t swap time for money. Once you find a winning method you can just turn up the returns.
So that’s all well and good, but most people’s next question is: what about tax?
Nope, it’s not too good to be true; gambling’s tax-free in the UK. That’s all you’re doing, so there’s no tax to pay!
However, if you make it to the consistent winners list at Betfair you may find yourself paying premium charge’s. Depending on how much you make, I have to pay them but it’s only a small price to pay for the financial freedom trading has allowed me! In my previous jobs I wouldn’t have even earned a quarter of what I have through Betfair each year.
Check out Daisy’s Secret below:
Admittedly I was a little slow to react with this one… but it turned out okay considering.
Why Do Prices Change?
Prices change on sporting events for all manner of reasons. If you’ve ever looked at a betting market in detail, you’ll have seen at least one reason… the most obvious being when a horse breaks loose at the start. It’s a traders dream!
If football’s more your thing; have you ever noticed what happens to your teams price on later games when you’re star player becomes injured?
However, there’s only one thing that actually physically changes them; money.
If you can work out what the ‘majority’ think, or where they’re placing their bets, there’s a good chance you can make it pay!
This attracted me more than anything as, you don’t have to be an expert in sport to make money. Although it can help in some situations without a doubt.
If you’re interested in taking things further it’s best to put yourself in the position to win. In short, getting an edge over everyone else!
An edge based on understanding is always going to be best although there are others that’ll help too…
Advantages Available To Traders
Any full-time trader on Betfair will tell you; software is highly advisable.
I use the A Geeks Toy Pro trading software, you can get a free trial at geekstoy.co.uk
There are several advantages to using software:
- Speed (one click betting)
- Refresh rate (every 200 milliseconds, instead of clicking manually)
- Charting (indicators to assist decision-making)
- Position calculation (all that horrible maths above is done for you automatically)
For more information about the software, its benefits and how to set it up – see the YouTube channel.
So How Did I Bag £102 Profit Before The Start?
You may have guessed by now but; quite easily…
BUT, it was only easy as I knew where the price would go. Placing a trade is extremely easy, after all it’s just clicking a mouse!
Having identified this particular opportunity I backed my selection for £400, at 3.35.
While this may seem like a lot, it’s only £6 risk per price increment. From our entry the price started to tumble, eventually hitting a low of 2.40…
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how it was possible. Better still; how often does this kind of thing happen, every day?
I can tell you; quite often.
The tricky part is knowing when something like this is about to happen! It took me a long time to work it out (and a fair few mistakes).
In the world of racing it’s often the ‘privileged’ ones, in the know that have ‘inside information’ allowing them to keep all the profit.
Fortunately, with betting exchanges and the right knowledge, anyone can. Why? because behaviour’s predictable, there are obvious signs of a potential gamble (like in the video below) all you have to do is spot them before it unfolds. Or even as it happens.
By placing a couple of well thought out trades, several times a day, for smaller movements, on far smaller stakes can still bring a lucrative return.
Want To Know Why I Was So Confident?
Below is a download link to the 17 minute recording, outlining:
- Why I chose this opportunity to trade and you should too.
- Where a swing in price is likely to occur, daily.
- Influencing factors within this market.
- My reasons for staying in the trade, as it unfolded.
- How you can spot an opportunity just like this too! (quick check-list)