Betfair Football trading strategies – World Cup

Posted on Posted in Betfair, Football, General Rambling, Trading Strategies

With the World Cup in full flow I thought it would only be right to post about it!

First off, let’s get one thing straight – I know next to nothing about football and have never really followed it, for that reason I know im at a disadvantage trading it as it is one of those sports you need to know something about to make substantial profits long-term in my opinion. The upside being if I do trade it my view is not bias.

Shortly after coming across Betfair trading I spent some time playing about with laying the draw or LTD as it’s better known. Considering I didn’t have much knowledge of the teams/leagues etc I got on pretty well. I’m led to believe before it was publicised so much it was a better ‘edge’ although im sure it’ll still always be there if with good reason to use it.

In my experience finding the right games was the key to this, in short you’re looking for two things:

1. A potentially high scoring game (regardless of who will win)

2. A good price to enter at (Half time when it’s 0-0 is often good due to the time-decay of the first half)

When the time is right you Lay the Draw for your set liability (level staking is always important) and trade out after the next goal. Depending on your knowledge of the game in hand and confidence there can be an opportunity to trade out just a portion of your profit in order to accelerate the overall result….

The second strategy I have found is pretty useful (and again knowledge of the sport is important) is finding the points in the game where a price remains ‘stagnant’ particularly at a point of compression for any length of time (preferable very low odds). This allows us a window of opportunity where we can have a trade open without the ‘time decay’ experienced throughout the game eating into our bank.

Thirdly there is scalping ‘in-play’. Using this correctly it can be pretty useful although if you’re not disciplined then it could get nasty if a goal is scored. In my opinion people often get this wrong as they just attempt to scalp with the trend rather than against it!

I’ll show in the clip below although when doing this im only looking for very short-term over-reactions in the market, for example a corner, free kick etc. Those with faster feeds and at the match will have an advantage over us when such events occur although it is possible to scalp a tick or two here and there momentarily after the event has occurred.

For example a corner is given to England and so the price contracts three or four ticks, the corner is taken and cleared by the opposing team – in this instant the market will return to its original price, this is our opportunity for a quick scalp, if it is not filled in the space of a few seconds you’ll need to hedge.

Like I say, I’m not particularly a football fan and don’t claim to make thousands a month on the football although I know what conditions im looking for in terms of the market, if nothing else this will give you something to think about!!

3 thoughts on “Betfair Football trading strategies – World Cup

  1. Just when i think i have a clue you go and turn my world upside down with a load of stuff that makes sense. Thank you for the insightful post, i now have plenty to think about!

  2. Hi caan.
    Great vid and write up. I have been keen to try and get in to football trading for a while but never been too sure what works. Couple of questions:
    Can u elaborate about point of compression and when u mention scalping can u explain more about your opinion of people going with the trend rather than against it.
    Thanks.

    1. Hi John,
      The point of compression comes as part of an over-reaction for a goal IMO – it’s useful (and its where football knowledge can assist) as not so often do the same team score two consecutive goals in the space of 10-15 minutes or so at low odds (1.5 or lower preferably) it gives us the opportunity to have a lower risk lay because of the odds for a bigger reward should a counter goal be scored! Often only a tick or two may be lost over that space of time meaning essentially a free bet is on offer for a limited time providing a second goal doesn’t go in. Scalping is also a possibility at the point of compression although offers far less reward obviously. The in-play scalping is more a case of mopping up the scraps after the oncourse/faster feed traders have taken moved the price several ticks due to a free kick/corner etc I say its prefered to go against the grain as going with it for me feels a lot more dangerous particularly when scalping the draw as if a goal is scored you are left high and dry and down many ticks where as if you get it wrong you just have to close out for a tick or two’s loss – also if you’re lucky and a goal is scored while you are on the lay side of the draw you’re in for a tidy profit!

      Hope that helps a bit

      Caan

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