BIG Swing Trade Yesterday… Watch It [Video Post]

Posted on Posted in Betfair, Horse Racing, Trading Strategies, Video Posts

Shaka

This last week’s been a bit crazy for horse racing traders, for those who haven’t experienced it before it can be quite stressful.

It happens almost every year around this time, some crazy punter turns up and starts betting 10’s of 1000’s sending the market berserk.

I posted previously about it here. Someone mentioned on Twitter they had lost a lot of money down to this erratic behaviour, in the past it’s caught me too. The best thing to do if that happens is take a break, get your mind focused again, and if needs be stop for the day.

Mad punter aside, the markets have been their usual selves.

We’re entering that period where activity drops a little, slightly reducing stakes (particularly if scalping) isn’t a bad idea over the next month or so. With added experience of time im able to feel the difference and adjust accordingly, but at no points there’s no doubt ill do the same.

The one thing that doesn’t change though, is the opportunity for a good swing in price! Yesterday was no exception (and this wasn’t that crazy punter mentioned above).

Did you see it coming?

I wasn’t 100% sure about this trade until about 20 minutes out. I don’t typically trade so far out, although if there’s a stand-out opportunity, with the ability to limit my risk – I’ll go for it.

I’d checked up on the races a couple of times throughout the morning, as I usually do. The first race at Catterick stuck out like a sore thumb, it was quite obvious that it was to be a two (possibly 3) horse affair.

Early activity in the market suggested to me that either the favourite or second would be strong, but that’s not unusual. In fact you can see I got caught for a couple of ticks red on the favourite early on.

After a few small flurries of money on both in question the decision was made… once the market had confirmed I was correct I knew it was to be quite a long trade (time wise) as I’d need to let my profits run. Being confident I couldn’t help but drop a hint on Twitter, something I don’t often do. That said, I was still a little surprised at how far the price moved eventually.

Here’s what happened…

Video Pack Subscribers: In the coming week’s I’ll be adding this clip to the Video Pack with a separate cometary

7 thoughts on “BIG Swing Trade Yesterday… Watch It [Video Post]

  1. Was in Dublin for a long birthday weekend, was good to see the action at Leopardstown on Sat. Been sitting around hungover feeling sorry for myself a few days, watching this video has got me right revved up again. Back to it tomorrow. Cheers Caan

  2. Hi Caan

    For the life of me I cant find how to get the flowing traded volume bars above the stake buttons and below the horse’s name. Is it part of a standard layout or is it added manually from righ clicking the top of the graph. Any help appreciated.

    Pete

  3. Why didnt you lay the favourite as well? It seemed obvious and could of added considerably more to your profits?
    Just wondering what your thought process was on that as one runner was clearly effecting the other.

    Thanks,
    Please keep the videos coming, they are invaluable and are the difference between me losing money and making money.

    Stephen

    1. Hi Stephen, I was a little tempted although its often harder to notice where there isnt money, supposed to where there IS. It could have changed on the fav, which would of meant I exited on the second.

    2. Stephen if you know the way something is moving why would you start to speculate and gamble on another runner? Why not just increase your stake on the one you’re confident of? Plus Caan may well have been exposed as far as he wanted in that market.

      Too many people make the mistake of overtrading on too many horses in the market when they should concentrate on one. Multi runner racing markets aren’t like the two runner markets of tennis where prices move in harmony and can easily be swayed by punters coming in and out or even just lumping on both at te same time.

      My guess is that whilst this was a nice trade for Caan he’s experienced enough to know his week isn’t going to depend on this one race. With maybe another 200 races in the week it’s much better to be consistent and only play when the odds are in your favour.

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