Market Manipulation on the Pre-Race Horses

Posted on Posted in A Geeks Toy Pro, Betfair, Horse Racing, Rewards

 

So I posted on Facebook earlier HERE. As promised, a bit of feedback on what I thinks going on! Hopefully if anything readers can avoid paying this bully if not profiting from it. The video is a very obvious example with the wild staking but it seems to be coming clear this is happening on more or less all markets just lately even if it behaves slightly different. The poorer quality stuff it seems to be that bit more aggressive like the clip above! However on the better racing it’s there too just sitting outside the prices hogging certain prices making it harder for traders to exit/enter positions unless it suits their cause, they must have a massive bank as the biggest exposure I’ve seen it appear with has been around the £300,000 mark! Well out of my league.

I didn’t record this one at Galway below unfortunately although the same routine, I’ve highlighted the sudden flip in unmatched money across the book….

To say it was just a case of anything other than brutal manipulation would be foolish to my mind, if you look at the time and amounts matched much like the clip above the price moved rapidly without a lot of money being matched on the way meaning half the money highlighted (definitely not all of it) is an illusion, at least it’s more predictable in the less interesting races…

Obviously I exited a bit early but it’s really quite hard to tell when this individual is going to stop pushing or even worse change and rip it back in an alternate direction!

 

All in all im sure this individual is turning over huge sums of money with massive profits and the occasional large loss, but like I say in the clip if they are on 60% Premium Charge then you can’t blame them too much as any big losses will just result in their commission being less. It’s been speculated elsewhere by others that this person/team are matching their own money which I think could be possible too. It’s pretty hard to work out though without seeing their screen or matched bets unfortunately. All we can do is avoid them when its obvious, I find the most dangerous markets for me is when they don’t show their hand at all then plough in matching money first before loading up the prices so it doesn’t return. The majority of the money in the market is without a doubt trader/bot money which makes it a bit easier for them at times and particularly when there is less genuine bet turnover, as someone using larger stakes than most it feels as though lately im more noticeable to this untold force.

I’ve recorded a few that I will put in the Video Pack soon. One of which this force is pushing insanely with 20k stakes!! Earlier on in fact I took it on for a £2,500 stake and instantly £18,000 appeared on the opposing side of the ladder, unless you can work it out which, is possible at times it’s probably best to avoid and not risk getting stuck in their trap! (this shouldn’t be confused with the guenine large staker that was about over the last couple of weeks, telling the difference at times can be hard though until its already happened)

13 thoughts on “Market Manipulation on the Pre-Race Horses

  1. Hi Caan
    Like yourself I have notice this activity in virtually all the Horse racing markets recently.
    The tick movements on some markets can be enormous!
    Neil

  2. It’s a tough one and when there’s obvious big manipulation going on I tend to just sit back and do little or nothing as I don’t feel confident enough to risk it – only time will help that I guess

  3. Hi,

    I Quit this horse trading it is to fast for and and i have lost enough money.
    Sorry but thats my apinion with this just to hard to take it all in.

    1. i’ve blown like 3 banks, Best advice is persistence and small stakes until you can make profit consistently then just start scaling up slowly

  4. yeah i remember this. i’d be lying if i said i was expecting this when laying, but was aware it was prone to a big movement and would’ve happily taken a couple ticks against me before closing for a loss.

    here’s the turbo-money trade i made:
    http://i.snag.gy/W8FXO.jpg

  5. Got to be self matching using the master/sub accounts, been going on for years and every so often someone comes along and ramps it up a gear. Betfair have never bothered about it because those agent accounts generate vast amounts of comms from all the other big hitter bets they take and betting via the agent accounts is pretty much the norm in Asia/Russia etc.

  6. Here are my 2 pennies worth to show them matching up nothing. I know in the past people always right it off as Xmatching but i presume for Xmatching to occur there needs to be money available. A well known trader also advised it is a software issue with refreshes or something.

    Ive marked a few points I see as significant. Im In demo mode so my bets shouldnt have any impact on the market but thats also open for debate! Its a weak market but i find its easier to spot the shennanigans in weaker markets.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta64bFfmqzM&list=UUIuR4CL9km7-5ei2sMlLvXw

    13 Seconds Watch the money in the queues and then watch the matched column at the same time. There is 10 quid on the lay side but suddenly bets go in and there is 32 matched at them two positions and the 17 drops down and is matched out. All feels a bit fake.
    18 seconds there is no money available at 3.3 but suddenly money is matched up.
    1.21 is the most noticeable bit of matching their own bets. You can see 5 pounds and 13 pounds in the ladder. At the price of 2.96 where the 13 pounds is sat there is suddenly a lay bet that comes in and takes everything out to a zero amount and suddenly the matched amounts go up to 127 at this price point.
    4.40 mins – If you take my practice mode bets out of the equation watch how the money is matched up at 3.15 and 3.20 you will see that only 17 pound was on offer at 3.15 and 16 pounds at 3.20. However if you watch it frame by frame you will see all this taken out, 126 is offered by layers and immediately matched out for the same amount 126 and the new matched amount becomes 364. Virtually impossible for different people to react at that speed i would say.

  7. I think you actually nail it in your comments when you touch on whoever it is must be across the book and if they move one price the other price has to move…. offering is the past!

  8. Steven your video seems to show conspiracies but that’s generally down’ to the way the software you’re using has been programmed. Rather than relying solely on the API feeds it anticipates certain situations rather than waiting for the API to return info so it can show your placed bets quicker, downside is you kind of get overlaps which you wouldn’t get with other software or the Betfair interface especially in training mode.

    1. Dave

      The software doesn’t anticipate anything, and this was just a ( usual snide) rumour started by a competitor on their forum who after 5 years still doesn’t understand why the toy is faster to display info than their product.

      And I would appreciate that you stop spreading such falsehoods yourself.

      Thanks

      TG

  9. Dave, I understand the refresh issues because a big trader was quick to point it out to me a while back. It was quite surprising actually that they were so familiar with software other than their own.

    Im not quite sure what it was anticipating on 18 seconds matching up that money well above the last traded price at 3.3!

    Its probably a little worrying for a lot of users if the software is making guesses of what the market will do next.
    I also use another software and usually they have the same prices matching perfectly side by side in practice or real mode but the other software just shows blobs of colours, so it appears a little different.

  10. Just for the record I don’t believe it is a software issue at all, if my comment also came across like that GT Dave.

    I think it is more likely a market makers bot being exposed with what I point out and they want to quickly nip it in the bud by blaming software.

    I use both softwares that are probably in question and they both have their advantages, so not a one to put either of them down.

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