While spotting a potential gamble isn’t too hard, it can be quite tricky to know if it’s over or not.
There’s nothing more stressful than being right in your assessment, but missing out.
Except for still being right and losing…
The solution is simple. Picking the right fights to get involved in, being decisive and reacting fast. Reacting without thinking takes a little confidence and the repetition of time, but knowing what you’re looking at is likely to drastically improve results. Here’s a few things to think about:
Assessing WOM (Weight Of Money)
That’s right. WOM is still useful at times.
Over the years I’ve read many views on using WOM to trade the Betfair markets. If you think about it on a logical level, it must always hold some use. Many are quick to declare it’s useless on various forums, probably as at result their own frustrations. But like many other indicators it has a use.
Racing markets have many variable factors contributing to price changes, simply ignoring some as useful would be foolish.
Earlier in the week I managed to record this race at Haydock for the video pack upgrade, due next month. It was one of those occasions where the market became a one-way affair.
In this instance it wasn’t all that surprising to see this result follow:
Assessing the money itself has become trickier over time. Mainly because of the market manipulation that quite clearly occurs.
Ignoring the unmatched volumes but concentrating on the actual money falling into the market at the available prices is more useful. Unmatched money often ‘scares’ users into misplacing bets through panic. Don’t do it…
Is a great way to reduce stress while trading.
Regularly the urge is to ‘want to make money fast’, which is of course is likely to lead to the exact opposite. I’ve spoken about it many times before.
When you spot a gamble starting to unravel it’s great. More opportunity is on offer because of it, but that doesn’t mean you need to become ‘excited’. Just like the fear of losing, the excitement of winning is dangerous.
Just because you’ve spotted a lot of money pouring one way on a given selection it doesn’t mean it will continue all the way to post time.
It may, but it’s unlikely…
It’s this kind of thing that causes those horrible whip-saw type situations where the price rips back many ticks as traders jump over each-other to exit. See the graph below, just like that!
Managing your stakes and risk is just as important as spotting the gamble in the first place. Think on that…
Anticipation: Unfair Competition…
Last but by no means least…
Finding a handful of situations each day where a gamble is more-than-likely to develop.
The urge is to assume this approach isn’t of use when you find it doesn’t happen every time. The kicker being; when it does, it’s powerful.
I’ll save the specifics for the video pack update but just because something you expected may happen didn’t it didn’t make the exercise a waste of time!
As we say in the UK, ‘it’s like busses’. Nothing may happen for a while, but then they’ll all come at once. But that’s just the nature of trading…
You want to look for a situation where it’s one way traffic within the market. Like the screenshot at the top of this post, all the money was for one runner. I didn’t just trade one runner although it was a heavily lop-sided market in terms of betting.
If I’m to participate, I don’t like competition.
Because I want to win, and easily.
For this reason it’s often harder to find market moves in those situations where everything is highly competitive and ‘equal’.
The market often does the hard work for us, it’s just a case of looking!