Volatile markets… Excellent George!

Posted on Posted in A Geeks Toy Pro, Betdaq, Betfair, Horse Racing

volatile

 

Being aware of volatility alone instantly puts you in a better position…

 

As I mentioned earlier in the week it’s always likely to be a fairly quiet one after the festival. However it doesn’t mean things are impossible… if you’re a scalper its likely you found it a bit harder than usual, but like I say its far from game over. The markets are just different and you have to cater to this! Having selection of strategies and approaches will always be more preferable for me over the long-term.

When I’ve spoken to others in the past I’ve highlighted the fact that different situations require different approaches to achieve the best results, or at least give yourself the best chance of success. Much like a professional runner wouldn’t turn up to a 100m sprint race wearing fell running shoes. Or a professional cyclist wouldn’t turn up to the tour-de-france on a BMX bike.

Market for market its similar on Betfair, having an idea of the kind of volatility a market may produce is important. To do this you’ll need to understand some of the characteristics of a market, things like race time – if it’s 9.15 on a Friday night is never going to be very liquid and therefore quite volatile. Lets face it the majority is on the beer and what’s going down at Wolverhampton isn’t at the forefront of their mind. On the other end of the scale, as I have said previously in other articles a feature race on a Saturday afternoon is likely to be the opposite. Other things you may wish to look at is the amount of runners in a race, the quality of the venue, prize money etc.

I’ve been monitoring things slightly differently lately, im not too sure on all the information I’ve gathered yet but it’s certainly of interest. Here’s a trade from earlier in the week. Trading more volatile races means you may have to be a little bit more selective and be prepared to ride the wave that bit longer. I didn’t make the best of the move’s on offer admittedly although the last bit I don’t think many would have seen coming, purely as it seemed a mixture of a heavy gamble and the big fish in the market exaggerating things.

Excellent George was always going to be a mover in this race to one degree or another, I bailed out when things slowed down at 2.2 and 2.24 although as you can see it shortened further. Late on it even hit 1.86, which seemed a little wild. It certainly won’t hurt to see if the money comes for Excellent George next time…

1525Chelm

3 thoughts on “Volatile markets… Excellent George!

  1. I was looking at your screenshot of your bets and can see that you’ve laid and then backed to secure your profit ( somewhat larger than my stakes, being a newbie) but can’t understand why the weird amounts. I’m doing it with whole numbers as in £20 lay £20 back when the price goes out. Am I missing something here?

    Regards

    PB

  2. Just wondering, would you ever consider leaving a bigger green on such heavily backed runners – but still smaller greens on the others?

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