Get Me Out Of Here!!

Posted on Posted in Betfair, Trading Strategies

So it’s started! Now i’m not really a massive fan of TV but this is one of the few that i will watch. As you may also i find it a bit more interesting if i’ve had a little trade on the odds sometimes securing it as a free bet.

What i have noticed though is their is a pattern emerging in these type of programme’s last year it was obvious with Brian Connolley and in the X Factor markets i have seen it several times (haven’t really bothered with X Factor this year as the mrs hasn’t watched it as much). In the earlier stages of the competition although it may be quite obvious who is very likely to be the eventual winner (in this case Joey Essex) the pricing doesn’t really seem to factor in the fact their is several weeks left where many different things could happen, outsiders emerge to be liked, others are kept in for entertainment value and sometimes those that were originally liked end up being quite annoying.

 

Now i might be slightly biased being from Essex myself but i can’t really stand Joey Essex. His lack of common sense and stupidity grates on me, i hate to think people categorise me with the likes of the individuals from the programme TOWIE. Anyway i digress, if you have subscribed to the Facebook Page and twitter feed you will of seen my posts before the show started. His price at 2.38 seemed utterly ridiculous to me so i layed him for £500 liability, by the end of the first programme i thought his price was approaching a more realistic mark of 2/1. You can see all my trades placed on the Market Navigator so far in the image below….

 

It appears i exited at a good point with the price coming back in for the second show, having seen that i can think that is for a few reasons. First off he’s the favourite anyway, secondly he has been selected for the next challenge twice indicating the public will be keeping him in for further challenges and thirdly he hasn’t upset or frustrated anyone (yet).

Everyone is still in the mothering stage of looking after him and laughing at his lack of intelligence. In my opinion I don’t think that can last for too long, once the challenges get harder and people within the camp get hungry he will begin to grate on them and possibly the voting public too, i don’t deny he may win so it might not be a case of ‘easy money’ but given i’ve already managed to secure a green position im willing to take the risk. If you look at the image also you will see before i’m in any kind of substantial loss his price will have to be below 1.8, I can’t see that happening for a while so i’m afforded some time to see how it pans out. Also you will see i have backed Mathew Wright, why? well he is the most anoying so far isn’t he? and his reactions to the challenges are wild…. the public won’t let him leave just yet. A shorter term proposition but still a profitable one.

 

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