How To Predict A Draw In Football Game | 3 Match Prediction Tips

If you can predict an outcome in a football match more accurately then the bookmakers. You have a licence to make money!

In today’s article we will look at using some statistical analysis to predict a draw in football.

Here are four tips on how you can quickly find what games are most likely to finish a draw in a recent YouTube video. Check it out…

The key points in the video are:

• 1:18 Key questions when predicting a draw in football.
• 6:30 Expected goals and draw predictions.
• 7:54 Possession statistics in football.
• 9:07 Time perspective with predictions.
• 10:41 Impact of outside investment in football.

In the Premier League, the draw occurs historically around 27% of the time, why is this?

There are some clear indicators to be aware of when considering if a match is likely to finish in a draw.

Four Tips To Predict A Football Draw:

The best place to start when looking for a draw is xG (Expected Goals). Expected Goals is a very valuable tool when betting or trading on football. It gives you a clear indication as to how teams are playing heading into the fixture and how many goals are expected between the sides.

The site I use for this is Infogol as it has everything I need. As you can see in the photo below, it has everything you could ask for heading into a fixture. Total goals is a helpful tool when trading the over/under 2.5 goals market, but team goals for and against is very helpful for finding a fixture more likely to finish a draw.

The next two areas to focus on are possession and time frames. It’s far easier to predict a draw for a small section of time and then trade out in comparison to predicting a draw over the whole 90 minutes. This is why possession and time frames come into the mix.

For example; in the first leg of a big European clash the favourite is playing away from home. In this situation we are far more likely to see a cagey start with little chances early. In a two legged tie there are times when a draw is not a bad result for one side.

This presents an opportunity to trade the draw price or back it as outright value.

Using Betting Odds To Find A Football Draw…

One of the biggest indicators around when you are looking to find a draw on football is the over/under 2.5 goals market. You want to look for games that have low odds on the under 2.5 goals market, as that is telling you the bookmakers aren’t expecting many goals. The fewer goals, the higher chance of a draw. You can use the Correct Score market to help you too, look for games that have lower than usual odds for 0-0 and 1-1 score lines.

These games will likely come between two evenly matched sides in mid-table.

Why mid-table?

Because the sides towards the top of the table will have more scoring firepower up front, and we’re likely to see more goals which in turn means less chance of a draw. If for example, we have 11th playing 12th, and they are both low-scoring teams – we’re a lot more likely to see a draw in that game and the over/under 2.5 goals market will guide you.

You also want to know what is the playing intent of both sides. For example, does a draw suit on both sides?

There are a few classic examples of this in the past like when Manchester United won the league in 2011 against Blackburn who also needed a draw to stay up. Both sides were happy with a draw and had no reason to push forward late on.

Another classic example is Denmark and Sweden when a draw meant they both went through in Euro 2004 and knocked out Italy.

They are two famous examples, however, as noted above there are plenty of times when teams are happy with a draw. In crunch games towards the end of the season when a draw is all they need, or first legs when the favourite is away in big European games. Remember, you only need to find a small window to trade the draw price rather than predict a draw over 90 minutes and each week you’ll see a tonne of examples as to when teams are happy to play for a draw.

Draw Betting Tips

If you are looking to find value in the draw betting market there are a few points to consider.

1. A teams intention – chasing the title/promotion, happy to settle for a point?
2. Basic statistical analysis – use a site such soccerstats or infogol to look at a teams recent form, alongside XG figures.
3. Weather conditions – snow and heavy rain often slow down games, causing less goals to be scored.
4. Manager Tendencies – Some managers will be happy to play defensively and accept draws in away games.
5. Key Injuries – Are teams missing key defensive or offensive players.

Brighton this season are interestingly the team with the highest number of draws with 8 from a total of 23 games played. Six of these draws came against teams in the bottom half of the table, which given Brighton’s attacking ability may seem surprising. However lesser teams have been happy to pick up a point and Brighton have struggled against teams that have set up defensively, as you can see from the five 1-1 draws they had this season.

Knowing this trend could allow you to identify value in upcoming games. Allowing you to spot some potential in the pre match market or in-play if you can see that Brighton are struggling to create against a lesser team.

Using Draw Predictions To Profit

There are several ways to to profit from a game that given your analysis is likely to draw. The first and most common is to back the draw in the outright match odds market. If your analysis leads you to believe that the draw odds are too high and your analysis is correct then that will win in the long run.

However there are other approaches to profiting from the draw such as;

• Backing the draw in the half time market.
• Scalping the 0-0 scoreline at the start of a game – if you believe the game will start slow.
• Backing the draw in a live game at 60 mins – You can see one side is set up defensively and happy to take the draw.
• Covering 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 in the correct score market – In games you believe will have goals but are closely matched.

Draw Prediction in Football – Conclusion

The most important element to remember in any football draw prediction is the human one.

People are creatures of habit, they like to work the rules to their advantage. Backing a draw prediction where both teams need the win is an extremely bad idea. When teams are fighting for the title or desperate to avoid relegation they will go all out.

A small team in the FA cup however that can generate considerable revenue by getting a draw with a Premier League team is a completely different story. It can be in their interest to play slow defensive football in hopes of gaining a lucrative replay

The safest and easiest draw predictions come from understanding the team and player’s motives. If you can get inside their head, things become far more predictable.

Related: 3 Football Betting Strategies Built on FACTS