The final matchday of the group stage hits on Tuesday. As I said yesterday, teams have a clear goal in mind here and we can definitely work that into our trading.
If you break things down, the angle is simple. A team wants to do this -> can they achieve it -> how do they go about achieving it -> how does that fit into our strategy -> are we getting value?
Tick the boxes as you go along. Most important question is are we getting value. If not, skip. Market will expect some things, we all know the “need to win” prices. I’m really looking forward to the next few days.
The schedule is:
- Netherlands v Qatar 3pm
- Ecuador v Senegal 3pm
- England v Wales 7pm
- Iran v USA 7pm
Netherlands v Qatar Trading Options 3 pm:
This is one of my favourite parts of the tournament, but it’s also a shame that the games kick off at the same time because you have double the action to follow. My advice would be to focus on one game, and then keep an eye in the background on the other game. My trading plan for this game is to largely ignore it in the first half, see where we stand, and go from there. I’m thinking we’ll see a host of goals from the Netherlands in the second half, so I’ll be looking to play some second half strategies from the Football Course, getting some juicy goal and handicap prices too. If Ecuador beat Senegal, it goes to goal difference with Netherlands so they have an incentive to bang in goals here. Qatar will open up more as the game goes on, their tournament gone we could see carnage here.
Ecuador v Senegal Trading Options 3 pm:
On paper, the early under 2.5 goals trade would work here, but I don’t like it. Senegal need to win, that changes my view on goals and we also have unders trading odds on too. This one just doesn’t feel right, and I think we’ll see better opportunity in the Netherlands game despite not getting involved until the second half. I’ll be keeping an eye on the Ecuador price though. They have impressed me so far. Played very well against the Netherlands and I fancy them to win.
England v Wales Trading Options 7 pm:
How boring were England against the US? Oh dear. Interesting game here. I know I am going out for a few beers with my mates so I’m happy to not have a strong opinion on anything here. I did go through and research the stats and markets anyway, and still nothing pops out – which is good!
Iran v USA Trading Options 7 pm:
Because this game kicks off at the same time as England, I will be out. I have a strong fancy here though. So much so I’m going to place a bet and leave it – very rare. Well, I say that obviously I’m going to be in the pub and checking my phone, lol! I just can’t have USA odds on here. They haven’t created a lot, their xG figures are actually lower than Iran so far. I can’t get over the fact that they are odds on. They have been super cagey so far but need to win now so have to open up. We saw Iran know how to counter well so far, and I reckon you’re getting great value laying the USA. Have to bet it, so reduce stakes. Trading is a better edge, but every so often a good bet pops up like this. An England win and anything bar a USA win would be a great night! I better write Wednesday’s preview Tuesday morning, lol!
Related: World Cup Football Trading Day 9