Monday is when the World Cup really kicks into gear. Three fixtures and a full day of trading…
England is in action to start the day, and that actually works out well because usually, the racing is pretty average for Monday.
It’s going to be weird having England play at 1 pm on a Monday afternoon, and there will probably be an average atmosphere in the stadium given the rules in Qatar. Fair play to the lads that went, but I wouldn’t spend the money. Give me a proper World Cup experience anywhere in Europe over the rules in Qatar!
The Monday schedule is:
- England v Iran 1 pm
- Senegal v Netherlands 4 pm
- USA v Wales 7 pm
Two odds on favourites and an open market. An interesting day ahead. I’m going to break down the trading options game by game…
England v Iran Trading Options 1 pm:
There’s going to be a tonne of interest in England’s first game, so expect plenty of liquidity and mug money. There’s also going to be a tonne of Matched Betting offers to knock around, so keep an eye out to see if there is any value from the lads getting matched. You’ll probably notice that more on Smarkets and Matchbook than Betfair because they have the 0% Commission offer for Oddsmonkey users.
England is the massive favourite of the day, so another thing to have in the back of your mind is if they lose we could see some wild movements in the other games as people chase. Some punters are going to chase and make stupid decisions regardless; you might as well be the one ready to profit. It’s likely they’ll pile into the Netherlands – I also reckon that might work both ways because if England wins a lot of punters might roll it over onto the Netherlands.
England should win here, they will be expected to with ease. They’ve been poor this year though, very boring to watch and lost twice to Hungary which was a shocker. They haven’t been creating a lot from open play. I’m interested to try and see what morale is like; do the players reckon Southgate is on the way out?
Iran is an average side, they’ll come here for a 0-0 and that could cause problems.
Iran comes through qualifying beating the likes of UAE, Iraq and Syria; pretty low-level stuff if we’re honest. My trading plan is to do nothing in the match odds market unless we are into the final 30 minutes and we’re level, then look at some time decay. My plan for the first 20 minutes will be looking to trade Under 2.5 goals from 1.71 down. I’ll watch the first 5-10 minutes and see how play develops, and then we could see some nice action between 10-20 minutes if England isn’t looking good with the ball. This could be a pretty boring game, to be honest, I can’t see Iran opening it up and England have struggled this year. I’ll be keen to be against goals unless I see otherwise.
Senegal v Netherlands Trading Options 4 pm…
As I highlighted above, definitely keep an eye on the trading volume coming into the market on the Netherlands price just after the England game. You’ll see what to watch out for on the Football Course. I feel they’ll likely move in whatever happens in the England game as punters roll up their bets or go chasing but obviously that has to go hand in hand with teams news etc. It’s something to be aware of anyway; a possible edge is there. Plus with pre-match trading, there is less risk because you’re only looking for a few ticks.
I have to say I’m a big fan of the Netherlands on paper. They have a good squad, plenty of talent and a good manager. Their problem is going to be can they stop conceding sloppy goals because they like to play such an open game. This game would be a lot different if Mane was fit for Senegal but it looks highly unlikely. He was included in the squad, but surely he won’t be ready in time for this game – there’s another market mover on the team news. Senegal will be a lot weaker without their main man, and they’ll be aiming for a draw here.
Under 2.5 goals is only two ticks off the England game at the moment, and I have to say I much prefer the early trade on the England game. The Netherlands has been involved in a lot of high-scoring thrillers, they are exciting to watch but with that brings danger – especially with a large lump on Unders! I’m keen to keep stakes small here, and dip in and out of the match odds based on play on the pitch.
I feel the best option here is to do nothing in the first half and then depending on the score get involved in the second half. Senegal might open up if the Netherlands are ahead, and some second-half strategies can come into play but if we get to half-time at 0-0 I can see Senegal doubling down on a draw, the Netherlands having the ball and basically attack v defence. Not an ideal trading situation there, but if the Netherlands have an average day we could see some nice time decay late on. You’d have to be brave though, and because it’s so early in the tournament don’t do anything stupid here.
USA v Wales Trading Options 7pm
Massive game for both sides. Expect England will top the group, and then these two battle for second. Everything screams a close game and the market has an open market too. Wales has waited 64 years to get here! Gareth Bale probably deserves this send-off. I’m not going to commit to anything here in the match odds market, but I would have Wales shorter. The USA are no great shakes in my opinion, really overrated, and didn’t even qualify for the last World Cup. The headlines will be they have a “young, exciting squad” but if Wales can sort out their issues at the back I think they can win here. To be honest, though, I’m going to stay away from the match odds here until at least the second half, maybe even the final 15 minutes.
I expect a very cagey start here, between two even matched sides. Under 2.5 goals is a nice place to start. We’re starting from a low point at 1.52 so I’m happy to watch the opening ten minutes, and then look for movement down between 10-20. You’ll see the volume come into the market if there’s not much happening on the pitch and ride the momentum. Both teams not to score is 1.77 and I feel that might be a good option here too. I really don’t see many goals. Wales is usually quite cagey, both sides know this is a huge game too and won’t be too attacking early on.
Related Post: Football Trading Time Decay on Betfair