Football

World Cup Day 3: Betfair Trading Qatar 2022

We hit top gear at the World Cup on Tuesday with our first day of four games. 10 am, 1 pm, 4 pm and 7 pm. It could be carnage…

It’s a long month, especially in the group stage and it’s going to be important to pick your spots.

A good message today is to remind yourself not to overtrade. Don’t chase opportunity, let it come to you. Also important to protect your bank at all costs. You won’t profit in the knockouts if you don’t even make it there.

Tuesday is an interesting day. We get our first look at two of the tournament favourites in Argentina and France, which also have two very short prices there.

The schedule is:

  • Argentina v Saudi Arabia 10am
  • Denmark v Tunisia 1 pm
  • Mexico v Poland 4 pm
  • France v Australia 7 pm

Argentina v Saudi Arabia Trading Options 10 am:

An early start! Ideal really; the dogs won’t have even started! Fair to say we could get some real mug money in the early games without much else on. That might bring some chasing in the second half markets and some strange market moves, one to keep an eye on for me.

Argentina should win here. They are trading 1.19 which is the shortest price to win a group game along with Spain to beat Costa Rica on Wednesday. I’m not really one for trading short odds to be honest. For starters, the market will always tick against you until the score, and sitting there praying for a goal is never a good option. I’m going to rule the match odds market out unless we’re level with 30 minutes to go then I might check it.

Saudi Arabia is going to stick eleven men behind the ball and pray for a draw. That might make the game interesting for trading in the second half, but I want to see can we get there first. The Saudis look very average, defending is their best hope. If they start to open up, look at some spicy prices on goals and handicaps because if they open up it could be a bloodbath. A couple of second-half strategies might fit here from the Football Course, depending on the HT score of the course. Nothing here to get excited about until we see the HT score.

Denmark v Tunisia Trading Options 1 pm:

I remember trading the Denmark game at Euro 2020 when Christian Eriksen collapsed. What a strange feeling that was to watch live. Thankfully he is back, and he’s been playing superb ball lately too. This is a must-win game for Denmark being in a group with France, so expect fireworks if we’re level heading into the final 15 minutes. Denmark starts the game trading around 1.49 and that looks right to me. I wouldn’t be rushing to get on if I was an outright punter.

denmark v tunisia world cup

I looked at the way Tunisia got here and it was an extremely low level. Hard to know how to rate them to be honest. Most of the tournament previews say they are rock solid at the back. A popular stat is they have conceded just twice in their eight qualifying games, but the opposition was shite to put it bluntly. Keeping stakes small on this one. I expect Tunisia to try and shut up shop, a draw would be a good result for them so if Denmark doesn’t look dangerous I think we can risk an early Under 2.5 goals trade, but keep stakes limited and be careful on this one.

Mexico v Poland Trading Options 4pm:

Massive game in Group C. Argentina is gonna top this group, and Saudi Arabia will finish last, so who wins here (if there is a winner) will decide who stays and go who goes home. There have been good value in taking on Poland recently but they did make progress in the Nations League recently. I still think that they are average though. Mexico had to come through the CONCACAF qualification process, they finished three points ahead of the USA. We have an open market in the match odds, and I agree with the prices. This is going to be very close, Mexico is rightfully the favourite with Poland outsiders.

Obviously, trades here are the draw with time decay and the early Under 2.5 goals trade, but we are starting from a low base at 1.58. I still think there’s value there in the opening 20 minutes. I expect a very cagey start. This game definitely appeals for scalping, and do repeat the whole scalping module if you’re a Football Course user because it will come in handy for games like this one where there isn’t much between the sides and it’s a nice option to have. Also, check out the Overreaction video, because we have such an open market and a very close game expected, we can see a big overreaction if there is a goal scored. My plan is to try to get the Under 2.5 goals early trade, and then see where the game takes us after that.

France v Australia Trading Options 7 pm:

You ever look at a game and think the best trade is no trade? This is that game in my opinion!

France is long odds on favourites at 1.27, but they were woeful in the Nations League this year. They are missing key midfielders, and Australia play their football at a very low level. I kind of want to be against France at some stage, but not here. I’m happy to sit on my hands here and watch this one with a beer.

Related Post: Ultimate Football Trading Guide For Beginners

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.