Football

World Cup Day 6: Betfair Trading Qatar 2022

Friday sees the start of the second round of group games. After seeing all the teams in action, maybe it’s a good time to up the stakes a little.

You would have gone into the first games with an opinion on how sides perform, and then come out of the first games with that opinion backed up or questioned. We’ve already had some big market reactions for Friday’s games, an interesting day ahead…

The schedule is:

  • Wales v Iran 10am
  • Qatar v Senegal 1pm
  • Netherlands v Ecuador 4pm
  • England v USA 7pm

Wales v Iran Trading Options 10 am:

Going to start the day with a non-trading opinion. Wales looks massive at 2.2, but I’m not a fan of any football trading angle here. Going to reduce stakes, just purely because it’s a bet rather than a trade, but Wales at 2.2 – can’t see past it. I don’t like the Under 2,5 goals trade with Iran shipping six goals against England, but at the same time, Wales isn’t exactly a very attacking team either. From a trading point of view, you’re going to have the market ticking against you on Wales waiting for a goal, which isn’t an ideal position to be in.

My tactics here, are back Wales at reduced stakes. Try to sit on my hands for most of the game, possibly looking to top up on Wales if I see a stalling or compression point. We’ve landed some nice trades in the goals market already this tournament, but this one looks like a game to avoid from that point of view. I would lean towards a slow start, but at the same time, I could see Wales 2-0 up by the break. Wales impressed me against the USA; had a much better xG figure too. They should win.

Qatar v Senegal Trading Options 1 pm

This is another game where I have a strong opinion on the winner. Senegal should beat this average Qatar side. I think we all felt Qatar were rubbish after seeing the first game. Like I said heading into that game, Qatar wouldn’t be here if they weren’t hosts. Their qualifying group in 2018 was so poor, and they finished bottom. The Senegal price has moved in massively and that was a good example of Lateral Thinking as explained in the Football Guide. The Football Guide is also on sale for Black Friday so do check it out today. Senegal were trading around 2.3, and they are now around 1.66 so that was a really massive move for little work if you were prepared.

Senegal should win here, but there are concerns. No Mane and they aren’t known for banging in goals for fun. In an average AFCON group they topped it with one 1-0 win and two 0-0’s. Then in the knockouts, their route was 2-0, 3-1, 3-1 and 0-0. The two 3-1’s were against weak opposition. I would think twice before piling on the 1.66. Actually think Wales is the better bet. Under 2.5 goals is marginally higher at the moment and while that does appeal that comes with issues. Qatar looked so bad in the first game can we trust them? My plan for this game is reduced stakes on an early Under 2.5 goals trade. I have no faith in Qatar so will likely look to get on Senegal at some point, but I’m just not bullish on this game. Senegal to grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win IMO. If I had no faith in Qatar the early Under 2.5 goal trade would really appeal.

Netherlands v Ecuador Trading Options 4 pm

We skipped the first half of the first Netherlands game, and that proved to be wise thinking. I think we can do the same again here, but I have to say the Under 2.5 goals early trade is tempting. I’m just going to reduce the stakes and try that here. Ecuador will be delighted with a 0-0 draw and they will set up for that. The Netherlands will get the job done in the second half again, just like the opening game, but I expect them to have to work very hard again.

The Netherlands are a side I like, and they also scare me from the Under 2.5 goal point of view because they are generally very attacking. Van Gaal looks to have them well drilled at the back though, and I expect Ecuador to be painfully negative here. I know we all want to see good football, but a draw for Ecuador would be a massive result. I might try to scalp the Netherlands on the way out if we have a dull period of play, but the main target is Under 2.5 goals early trade for small stakes.

England v USA Trading Options 7 pm

It was good to land some nice trades on a cagey start between the USA and Wales. That was textbook. England started with a bang though hammered Iran. That one was over by half-time. If you read my preview of the USA v Wales game, I went into that game with an opinion that the USA are average and as I said above, I am more confident on that opinion now having seen the game. Wales was the better side and the USA looked average. They didn’t create much, and England could hammer them here.

England have struggled to score this year, had massive setbacks losing to Hungary etc but the six goals against Iran couldn’t have been a better start. I know some people, the usual types, were complaining about the fans reactions in pubs on Monday but it looked class. It’s just people enjoying themselves. Who wants to work on a Monday when you can go mental as England win at the World Cup.. haha! I’m not trading this one because I’m so confident on the England win. 1.61 is a nice price too. The USA are bang average. Wouldn’t put anyone off some fancy prices on handicaps and check out some second-half goal strategies if you’re new to the Football Course. We could see two or three late England goals if they have the lead and USA open up.

Related: World Cup Football Trading Day 5

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