It’s the final day of the Last 16 at the World Cup on Tuesday. As I write this blog before the Monday games kick off, we’ve had Over 2.5 goals is all four Last 16 games so far. The games have been entertaining, and at the moment, it looks like we’re going to have a wonderful Quarter-Final line up.
The Last 16 stage has gone well so far trading wise. The early Netherlands goal caught me in the opening game, but we bounced back with Argentina v Australia and then with France leading 1-0 at half-time that really set things up for our second half strategies in the Football Course. The England game went well too, as we got in and out of the under 2.5 goals trade before the first goal arrived in the 39th minute. You don’t want to be going past the 25th minute with that trade.
The schedule for Day 4 of the Last 16 is:
- Morocco v Spain 3 pm
- Portugal v Switzerland 7 pm
Morocco v Spain Trading Options 3 pm:
Morocco topped a group with Belgium and Croatia in it, while Spain finished second behind Japan in their group. Not many would have called this fixture, lol! I think the draw has been kind to Spain though, they avoided the side with Brazil and Argentina plus Morocco haven’t been setting the world on fire. They have done way better than expected of course, but their xG figures aren’t anything to shout about. I think this will be a comfortable win for Spain, and my trading plan is going to be focused around getting on them. Just have to pick the right compression points – it’s not ideal being in a position where the market is always moving away from you, but the 1.63 is a nice price in my opinion.
Other than the Spain win, and possibly some nice positions on goals/handicaps if they lead 1-0 at half-time, I have no other strong view here. There’s no edge in the over/under market for me.
Portugal v Switzerland Trading Options 7 pm:
Crunch time for our Switzerland trade in the Outright market. They have moved into 100.0 from 130.0/140.0, but this is the game where we can see some real movement. I’m sticking it out. At those prices the stake wasn’t large, and the return is worth the risk here. I’ve been a huge fan of Switzerland throughout, and they have been kind to us too. They did very well against Brazil, only losing 1-0 and fought very hard to come back from 2-1 down against Serbia when everything was on the line. Their xG figure (3.61) was very good too. Am I bias? Yes, so take my opinion with a pitch of salt perhaps, but I reckon Switzerland get a result here. I’m happy to take on Portugal at odds on, and even build a position on Switzerland as the game goes on. No real opinion on the goals market again; I’ve noticed Portugal have conceded decent chances in all their games so far, so we could get plenty of action in front of goal. A Switzerland win/getting through would be a lovely way to finish the Last 16!