The World’s biggest tournament is nearly here. A month of superbly timed games with loads of liquidity washing around…
There’s been a huge amount of debate about the country and the timing, and it’s correct. There’s no way we should have a winter World Cup and there’s no way it should be in Qatar. But this is FIFA and money talks. We can’t control when and where the World Cup, we can only control our trading so I’m happy to get stuck in. Let’s be honest, anyone that says they are “boycotting” the World Cup is talking crap.
Four games a day, once we get going at 10 am, 1 pm, 4 pm and 7 pm, is absolutely ideal for trading from the UK. Might have to skip a few and pick better opportunities than others to avoid burnout, but it should be a belting month ahead.
As anyone who has the Football Course will know, Outright betting wouldn’t be a massive interest for me, but trading the Outright Qatar World Cup winner market should be good fun. There’ll be tonnes of liquidity and it’s nice to have an interesting. The stakes will definitely be at “fun” levels. There will be a lot of edges in-running in certain games and before the off too – I’m hoping to do a daily blog with my thoughts so keep an eye on the blog throughout.
The best way to access outright betting is to go through the draw yourself and map out who finishes where then look at those outcomes and form your prices. Let’s be honest, backing the Outright winner is tricky and needs a bit of luck, so view it as that!
World Cup Group Expectations…
Group A:
The Netherlands went through some tough times missing major tournaments, but they are back now and should top this group. They are an exciting team and their games should have plenty of action. There could be a lot of second-half strategies that suit them. For runner-up it’s tough. Oddly to win the group Senegal is shorter than Ecuador but To Qualify Ecuador is shorter. They meet in the final group game to decide that and to be honest, I am completely guessing here. Whoever finishes second is heading out in the Last 16 anyway in my view, but for the draw purposes, I’m gonna go with Senegal.
Group B:
England’s group. They will no doubt get through, but they have been useless lately. Creating chances and scoring goals from open play has been an issue. I can see the press getting on their back early. They should sail through this group though because they are better than the USA, Wales and Iran. More issues could come later! Once again here is pretty tight for a second, and whoever it is will be outclassed in the Last 16 anyway. Wales are my pick, they are reasonably solid and Bale can produce something magic etc.
Group C:
Another group where the first spot is pretty much locked in and then it’s tricky for a second. Argentina will top this group, and then if you look at the betting it’s very tight for a second. Mexico is 1.9 and Poland 2.04. Poland hasn’t been great over the last while, they have been poor in the Nations League etc and look like a team in decline. I wouldn’t be too confident but I reckon Mexico can bag second here.
Group D:
Denmark has been rock solid over the last few years, and they had a good Euro 2020 too. France definitely has issues heading into this World Cup after a horrible Nations League but we all know they peak at the right time. Their players will be “up for this” while they can chuck in the towel in the smaller games. This group should be straightforward, with France first and Denmark second.
Group E:
This group is easy. Spain and Germany through in that order. Spain has impressed me more in qualifying and the Nations League, so I think they’ll beat Germany to top the group. Granted we could see a draw between those two and then it’s goal difference which could swap around the Last 16 but I’m going Spain first, Germany second.
Group F:
Belgium should sail through the group. I know they have fluffed their lines at the major tournament but Croatia are on the decline over the last few years. Croatia is actually lucky to have got a reasonably soft draw because they could have easily been in danger of going out. Morocco and Canada shouldn’t be good enough, but if they do sneak past Croatia I’d expect whoever gets second here to exit in the Last 16 anyway.
Group G:
Brazil top the group no question for me. The betting has Switzerland and Serbia pretty close here, but I feel the 1.97 on Switzerland looks like cracking value; you could probably get 2.0 closer to the tournament too. They have been playing very well against top-class opposition in the Nations League and although Serbia is solid, I do fancy Switzerland here. They might be a good trade in the Outright market but let’s see how the draw pans out.
Group H:
The final group should be straightforward for Portugal and Uruguay. I don’t see Ghana or South Korea causing them problems. I would say though that Portugal have struggled to score goals recently. They fluffed their lines with a 0-0 draw away to the Republic of Ireland who are bang average and that meant Serbia went through and Portugal needed the playoffs. They can easily draw unexpected here; especially with Ronaldo in poor form this season. I think both sides from this group will exit at the Last 16, but I’m gonna pick Uruguay first and Portugal second, likely on goal difference.
World Cup Last 16 Draw Prediction:
- Netherlands v Wales
- Argentina v Denmark
- Spain v Croatia
- Brazil v Portugal
- England v Senegal
- France v Mexico
- Belgium v Germany
- Uruguay v Switzerland
On first impression, an easy draw for England you have to say – they will be delighted with that. Switzerland are trading at 120.0 in the Outright market and they look a nice trade. I’d expect them to get past Uruguay. There are a few big favourites in these games, and it should get more interesting in the Quarter-Finals.
World Cup Quarter-Final Prediction:
- Netherlands v Argentina
- Spain v Brazil
- England v France
- Belgium v Switzerland
Still happy with the Switzerland trade, because we all know Belgium might fluff their lines on the big stage. Although Belgium being a bigger price than Portugal in the Outright market looks wrong to me. Also Belgium a bigger price than Germany to reach the Quarter-Finals is interesting. The general feeling with Portugal must be they top that group and get an easier route, but I don’t see that. Have to say, if we get those Quarter-Finals I will be buzzing. Tough game for England, but win and they have a nice route to the final. France hasn’t been great in the Nations League either this season…
World Cup Semi-Final Prediction:
- Argentina v Brazil
- France v Belgium
I can easily see why we have Brazil, Argentina and France at the head of the market. I want to angle myself with positions on either side of the draw so my current Outright plays will be:
- Argentina at 7.2
- Belgium at 19.5
- Switzerland at 120.0
Even though I have Brazil and France reaching the latter stages, I feel they are a little short compared to the others so I’m happy to give them a pass as no real value. Switzerland is my outsider and could offer a nice trade. Argentina is my winner, and I might trade out of Belgium at the Semi-Final stage. I do like Belgium to reach the Quarter-Finals at 2.2 or bigger too. We should have an excellent month ahead!
As for my Final prediction: that’s going to be Argentina v France. But if England can beat France they have a pretty easy path to the Final you have to admit. I’m not a Southgate fan after this past year, think England will struggle to score goals, but you have to admit they do have a handy draw and you can see why they are as short as they are. Argentina will be the winner for me though, and Messi will go down in history!
Related Post: Pre-Match Football Trading Strategies on Betfair Exchange