The Quarter-Finals started in dramatic fashion with Brazil exiting the tournament. How we have England taking on France. A huge test, but the draw is opening up nicely should they win.. What a Saturday night!
The Croatia v Brazil game wasn’t ideal with no goals until extra time, but the Netherlands v Argentina game was textbook with no early goal and then Argentina taking the lead.. What a pass from Messi by the way. What drama at the end of full-time as well. What a World Cup so far!
Without wasting any time, let’s get stuck into Saturday!
The schedule for Day 2 of the Quarter-Final is:
- Morocco v Portugal 3 pm
- England v France 7 pm
Morocco v Portugal Trading Options 3 pm:
Portugal probably can’t believe their luck to be playing Morocco in the World Cup Quarter-Finals. I know Morocco have come through Croatia, Belgium and Spain, but Portugal would still be delighted with the draw. Unfortunately for an Outright trade, Portugal hammered Switzerland; they definitely improved without Ronaldo and the market reacted to that news too. Interesting to see what the market does here on the team news. I’d expect Ronaldo to be on the bench again. Speaking of our Outright positions, though, Argentina and France isn’t a bad place to be!
Portugal are trading 1.75 which over the 90 minutes is appealing, but I don’t really fancy just betting. I have to say this game is tricky to have a very strong opinion on. Also, it’s a Saturday at 3pm, so we do have the option of ITV Racing too (should Cheltenham go ahead). My opinion on this game is Portugal have been involved in a lot of goals, and they really did create more chances without Ronaldo. Morocco will likely be very negative and aim for a similar performance to the Spain game; but can they keep achieving that? At some point they have to concede, and then we could see a very open game. I don’t fancy committing to the early under 2.5 goals trade here. Compare it to the Netherlands v Argentina set up, and it’s just not the same.
Some games are just best left alone, and this one is about having the discipline to do that. For Football Course users, the best option is to set up for Lateral Thinking here.
England v France Trading Options 7 pm:
Here we go. Football is coming home! A night out with the lads? Very tempting, haha.
Both sides have had more overs than not, so I’m staying away from the early under 2.5 goals trade here or any scalping of goals markets. There’s just too much talent on the pitch. Mbappe is so impressive when he hits full speed, it feels like he could create a goal from anywhere and at anytime. The market does expect a cagey game though, with under 2.5 goals around 1.8. I fancy overs here; but that’s definitely a bet rather than a trade, so I’m happy to not get involved.
We have an open match odds market. France at 2.58 is a nice price when you take emotion out of it. I feel, from a trading point of view, the best plan here is to do nothing in the first half and see what the score is at half-time. If it’s 0-0, the game might not open up with so much at stake. You could try to get some accelerated time decay on the draw, but that is dangerous. I would rather it be 1-0 to either side at the break, and then we can see a very open second half. Definitely some of the Second Half Strategies from the Football Course will fit in that situation, and I’d be keen to get on goals at any compression points. I’d be buzzing to see England win, but when you stand back and just look at the data, France should win. Can only dream….
Also, do let me know how you’ve been getting on with your trading in the comments. And how you see the England v France game going!