If you are considering betting or trading college basketball, understanding what you should look for and the strategies you can use will help you succeed as much. In this article, you will learn about NCAA basketball betting strategies:
- Prioritizing Value Bets
- Differences between NCAA vs other leagues
- Use a Bankroll
- Place bets early
- Check injury reports
- Consider home advantages and away disadvantage
- Keep a narrow focus
- Consider hedging when appropriate
- Compare odds
- Consider what markets to wager on
Always Look For Value Bets
How you use this information will be shaped by how you bet. Generally, you should always find value in the bets you place. This will allow you to make a profit over the long run as you’ll place bets with an edge compared to the sportsbooks.
This means that, regardless of your NCAA basketball betting strategy, your focus is expected value (EV), specifically finding a positive expected value (EV+) in all bets you place. By opting for NCAA betting over NBA and other large professional leagues, you’ll have an easier time finding value bets. It won’t be easy, but you’re likely to be more successful in NCAA betting compared to NBA betting due to mispricing of odds from sportsbooks that allow you to take advantage and create an edge for the wagers you make.
Understand the Differences Between NCAA Basketball Betting and Other Leagues
The rules and strategies differ slightly between NBA betting and NCAA basketball betting. For example, overtime is regarded as a second-half bet on a team or total. To be sure about the rules before you place an NCAA basketball bet, always check the terms and conditions for the sportsbook you are using since their naming conventions and rules may differ.
Use a Bankroll
Create a budget for what you can afford to bet. If you have this in place from the start, you do not risk exceeding your bankroll and creating problems for yourself. And remember, don’t gamble with money you cannot afford to lose.
Place Bets Right After the Odds Are Published
Earlier, we mentioned the opportunities for finding EV+ in NCAA basketball. Many of these opportunities occur when you bet early. This is because sportsbooks do not always have the best read on the teams’ chances when they first publish the odds, but the odds tend to become more accurate the closer it gets to the game’s start time. So, it’s often easier to find value right after the odds were published, but it requires you to analyze and estimate the odds to find mispriced odds at market opening.
Check Injury Reports
Whenever you bet in the season, there are certain factors to consider, including the current injury report. If a particular player is unavailable, this can hurt the team’s chances of winning and will, therefore, impact your betting decisions. This can include minor injuries that don’t prohibit a player from participating but may marginally affect the person’s performance. If there’s a player prop available for a player with a minor injury, then that may be a good opportunity to place a bet for the player underperforming.
Home Advantage Can Sometimes Play a Part
You should also consider home advantage. This advantage does not always ensure a win for the home team. However, home advantage can impact the home team’s performance, especially in conferences like the ACC and Big East, where fan bases are passionate and vocal.
Focus on 1-3 Conferences
When you look at the conferences to bet on, choosing more than one is a good idea. However, focusing on no more than three is best because it allows you to develop expertise and identify opportunities to place value bets.
Hedge Your NCAA Bets When Needed
When examining the value of bets and attempting to optimize returns, think carefully before deciding to hedge your bets. While this wagering technique against an existing bet is popular in many sports, it guarantees the site will get some of your money. It’s usually better to only bet if you can afford to lose instead of placing a hedge bet.
Compare Odds and Lines to Get the Best Value
Another tip to optimize your NCAA basketball betting strategy is to look for the best lines across different sportsbooks. Doing this ensures you get the best value. If you want to make in-play wagers, waiting until halftime usually works best. This gives you more time to consider your options and gauge the teams rather than trying to bet between baskets.
Different Markets to Considerate for Your NCAA Betting Strategy
Considering the factors surrounding NCAA basketball betting, you must decide which strategies to use. Moneyline betting is one of the most popular forms of betting but it is also the market that is the toughest to find value in. This option involves betting on a team to win by any margin. If you bet on the favorite, the odds are negative. The opposite is true if you bet on the underdog. This means you get the best returns from betting on underdogs, but the chances of winning are lower.
Point spread betting involves placing a wager on a team to win by more than the size of the spread if they are favorites and lose by less than the size of the spread or win if they are underdogs. In point spread betting, the teams usually have the same or similar odds to cover. This market is essentially a derivative of the Moneyline odds and can be challenging to find value in. However, if the sportsbook offers many alternative point spreads, finding value in alternative uneven spreads is easier.
Totals betting is especially popular with basketball bettors. The sportsbook gives a total for the game representing the total combined points for the teams. Bettors then place a wager on whether the result will go over or under this total. Unsurprisingly, this type of wager is also known as over/under betting. Similarly to spread betting, it’s easier to find value bets if you look into the alternative totals and not the main line.
NCAA player props are widely available in the United States, except for betting on the teams from the state you live in. Typically, you’ll be able to wager on out-of-state games. This market is probably the one you’d have the easiest time finding value bets for since it’s a niche market compared to the other three markets highlighted in this article.
Futures bets are popular with some NCAA basketball bettors as they are across most sports. Before and during the NCAA season, you can bet on futures, such as which teams will reach the Sweet 16, the Final Four, and which player will win the Wooden Award (MVP).
Finally, you can consider parlays. This is generally a riskier option and is not the ideal choice for new bettors. This type of bet involves combining several bets into one wager with a larger return because the odds are multiplied for a higher odds combination. This means you must have more than one successful outcome to win the bet, so your chances of success are lower. However, the win size from this type of bet is larger, making up some of the risk. In college basketball betting, popular parlay options include combining moneyline bets, totals bets, spread bets, and player props.
Teasers are also a type of parlay betting. You can adjust the spread for all the games involved by a certain amount. This can slightly enhance your chances of winning, but the potential winnings are lower than those of a traditional parlay bet. You may want to consider this type of bet if you are new to parlay batting and want an introduction to it.
As always, plan your betting activities carefully and bet responsibly within the limits of what you can afford to lose.