With just two players people tend to think tennis betting strategy is 100% efficient, which is of course wrong!
It may be correct from a long-term punting point of view, but with the use of a betting exchange there are plenty of tennis trading strategies that’ll make you a few quid (low-risk).
In this post, we’re taking a deeper dive into tennis trading strategies to get you going, or at least thinking in the right way.
The five key areas are:
- 1: Sit-down opportunities.
- 2: Natural compression points.
- 3: Double break profits.
- 4: Playing the serve.
- 5: Points of overreaction.
I’ll break them all down one by one. Starting off with…
Tennis Trading Strategies For Betfair
In the distant past, tennis trading strategies have always been a bit feast or famine. But with deeper analysis, I’ve found that doesn’t have to be the case. Tennis trading can bring a reliable income.
But much like horse racing, you’ll need to be aware of how markets behave. Their limitations, such as tennis retirement rules and how certain situations are likely to evolve. And of course; where to place your bets as they happen! (crucial).
The good news is…
Tennis markets often follow suit, forming regular patterns (just like horse racing). After all, any market is just a collection of human behaviour, which makes things predictable.
It’s helpful to know a fair amount about the specific players, but not vital.
Either way, there’s the option to make a few quid. The simplest tennis trading strategies are built more around the market, numbers, and compression points in particular. Supposed to player-based knowledge. Putting the two together though is much like trading gunpowder!
As mentioned in the tennis trading pdf (mentioned above) there is one particular strategy that’s easily used to exploit the market.
All good trading strategies centre around one thing; a solid plan.
Having a plan and sticking to it removes the margin for error, managing risk and maxing out your upside. Better still, it allows you to see when you made an impulsive mistake. Meaning you don’t question your overall tennis trading strategies every time you use them.
#1 Sit Down For Easy Profits: Betfair Trading Strategies
When it comes to tennis trading, one of the simplest strategies is to focus on the breaks in play. Yes, you heard that right.
People often think of huge in-play swings but one of the lowest risk times to trade is while tennis players take a water break and sit down. By trading the market momentum and price activity while they do this we are afforded a solid trading opportunity, especially if the favourite’s serve has been broken.
Biases exist everywhere, but tennis trading is extremely low-risk when you approach it this way. Simply put, there isn’t going to be a 20-tick backlash in a hurry.
That old adage of ‘manage the downside and the up will come’ springs to mind. With key tennis tournaments like Wimbledon, this is great on very high stakes too.
There’s a section and video specifically about this strategy in the tennis trading guide.
#2 Compression Points: Betfair Tennis Trading Strategies
In tennis, there is often a situation where the market will move more in one direction than the other. But be aware: as the game goes on, things can get more and more erratic. Be very careful if you’re still contemplating betting in the final set (if you’re taking a position as to how the game will end, it’s best to be done with previous profits).
Late in a match, the markets can turn into a real roller-coaster, which of course brings its own value too! I won’t mention any here, although there are some killer tennis trading strategies to be used at the end of a match. Just think about it – overreactions equal easy money.
Historically, people make money fast when others panic.
Before employing this strategy it’s best to do some homework. The more you know about the individual player, the better. Some struggle more under pressure than others…
The biggest downfall in tennis trading, much like racing trading seems to be a lack of discipline. Tennis trading strategies are often a lot more mechanical. With there being only two players it’s always going to be that way.
So what’s a ‘compression point’?
During a tennis match, there are often several points of ‘compression’ within the market. These points often arise at crucial points of the game, which is a double bonus. When opening a trade at a point of compression the market is offering more reward in one direction than the other. We don’t win every time, but the payoff exceeds the risk of playing.
Look at this graph as an example, taken from a previous blog post:
If you look at the profit and loss column above, you’ll see the potential loss is £6. To make the same amount of profit the price would only need to hit 1.05
Look at where the area the red line becomes more solid. Tennis trading strategies thrive on these points within a game. Everyone wants to place a bet where the payout is more than the loss, right?
So if the market is ‘compressed’ at this point, there is a potential opportunity already. But let’s not be too hasty. To get that profitable gunpowder-like effect, we need to have a reason to open the trade.
Fortunately, in tennis, there’s always more than one set to be played in any one match. This is often the easiest place to spot one of these opportunities. At the end of a set, the price will have reached compression in one direction or another. On top of that, it can prove a rather high-pressure situation for the players. Especially if the underdog has to serve to win the set. More on the serve in a moment.
So just to make it crystal clear:
When the market reaches a point of compression (lower the price the better). And you have a good reason to bet, such as increased mental pressure on the players. It makes for a good opening trade. In the past, this has produced some hefty wins on the tennis. One of the most reliable tennis trading strategies I know of, particularly if you do your homework first.
Can you think of a time when the price might be compressed, with additional mental pressure bearing down on the players? end of the first set maybe?
Here are two good resources for player statistics:
Here’s a YouTube video I made some time ago. It briefly outlines the first of the tennis trading strategies mentioned:
There are other compression points within a match if you look hard enough. I won’t share them all as they’re included in our courses but there are plenty.
In my experience, the best tennis trading strategies are built around compression points. Make sure you’re careful if playing at a volatile point within a match though, poor discipline will find you out every time!
This leads me to the next point of interest…
#3 – Double Breaks in Tennis Trading
A double break in service is great when it comes to tennis trading. Particularly in women’s tennis…
Breaks in seven flip-flop back and forth many times throughout a match although they offer a unique opportunity. You see, when there’s been a double break the betting exchange markets are literally as far as they can go at that point in time. It offers a great risk versus reward ratio.
The earlier in a set, the better. After all, there’s more time for the breaks in service to be recovered. There have been many occasions in the past where a tennis player is trading at 1.04 with a double break in their favour, only for the entire match sentiment to reverse 20 minutes later (priced above 2.0).
Here, at these points of double break, tennis trading strategies are afforded thminimal risk and downside with a huge upsdie potential. Be patient, wait for these opportunities and then squeeze them hard for your own benefit!
#4 Playing the Serve – Betfair Tennis Trading Strategies
Serving within tennis is a very big deal. If you’ve ever played it much, you’ll know this. This is because a server often has an advantage over their opponent. In terms of building profitable tennis trading strategies, this is of great use. If you know when a player is under pressure, you can trade accordingly. Adversely it could help you in making a decision to exit a trade.
Each time a player’s serve is broken the market will react more than if would have if it was held. The only problem is, players often hold their serve, more so in ATP matches. Court surfaces can have a substantial effect on the reliability of a player’s serve as well. If you look hard enough you’ll start to see patterns where service games are broken.
So how do you make the most of this?
Tennis trading strategies like this rely heavily on the players in question. It’s always advisable to go against the serve, as the market reacts more. Going with the service is possible, although only in specific situations.
For example; If John Isner were playing a relatively low-key match, on a hard court surface it’s unlikely there would be many breaks in serve. John Isner has one of the highest statistics for winning his first serve.
If you bear in mind the point of play also, say the second or third match of the first set, mental pressure will be very low. In this instance, it may be a good idea to go with the serve for a game. Although I should warn you to be select! If service is broken the market will move more in the opposing direction.
It’s also possible to work this method in the alternate direction. If a player is particularly poor under pressure, playing on a slow surface like clay then it may be beneficial to lay them. This is where knowing your tennis can really help.
Playing the serve has far more opportunity to us within a match, although isn’t the most reliable of tennis trading strategies. But keeping its use to specific situations, combined with player knowledge can make it a useful tool.
- Markets react more to breaks in serve
- Your approach needs to be specific to the situation
- Court surfaces will change the dynamic
There’s a hefty clue in the next section, so make sure don’t miss a thing…
#5 Market Over-reactions – Betfair Tennis Trading Strategies
In every type of market on Betfair, there are over-reactions. People make mistakes! we’re only human at the end of the day.
For the patient trader, it can be really quite profitable, whatever your sport is. The main difference between tennis and racing is the regularity of opportunities. In tennis you may have to sit and wait for several games watching before making a move. However, you might get a bigger profit for that one move.
Offering a price always carries value. The more consistently you pick up value, the quicker the balance will grow. All tennis trading strategies rely on value in one form or another, this is one of the best as you don’t actually have to know anything about tennis.
The video below was originally created for another blog post as it applies to so many different markets. I’ll explain the exact idea behind what I’m doing after the clip…
You can see at 3.40 in the video I place a lay at 1.14 and 1.15. This is because I want to offer a bet in the market at a point where I may be matched by someone else giving away value. If it doesn’t get matched I don’t lose. If the point is won and moves to my position I can either get out for no loss or at the very worse case lose 1 tick.
Fortunately, it got matched, leaving a big enough gap in the market to provide me the opportunity to exit for a profit. For a worst-case loss of 1 tick, I managed to gain 3.5 ticks, I’m sure the shrewd amongst you won’t take long to realise there are other tennis trading strategies directly related to this.
If only all tennis trading strategies were risk-free! This one really is. The problem comes when you wish to increase stakes on a large scale, which is why I don’t mind sharing it publicly! Give it a go!
Hopefully, this insight will have given you a first starting point to build up a list of tennis trading strategies.
- Anticipation is an advantage
- Understanding the situation reduces stressful execution
- Only play when you have an unfair advantage
- Being patient costs you nothing
As with all trading on Betfair, knowledge is key. Putting one or two reasons for a trade together often make for the most positive results. Ensuring you test each strategy over a large enough sample, and keeping to the plan is important. The more information on offer, the easier things become!
What not to do…
It’s quite normal to get over-excited and start betting heavily once you find some useful tennis trading strategies. But be aware; each situation and tournament is different.
Different surfaces, players, locations and even crowds can make a difference to a match. Especially if it’s a final where a lot is at stake. Stick to a regular staking plan to avoid unnecessary highs and lows!
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