Tennis Trading Strategies for Betfair

Posted on Posted in A Geeks Toy Pro, Betfair, Tennis, Trading Strategies

Tennis Trading Strategies – Betfair Tennis Trading Strategies

With just two players people tend to think tennis betting is 100% efficient, which is of course wrong!

It may be correct from a straight punting point of view, but with the use of betting exchange there are plenty of tennis trading strategies that’ll make you a few quid.

Previously, tennis trading strategies have always been a bit feast or famine for myself. But with deeper analysis I’ve found that doesn’t have to be the case. Tennis trading can bring a reliable income.

Much like the horse racing, you’ll need to be aware of how markets behave. Why and how certain situations evolve. And where to place your bets as they happen!

The good news being they follow suit fairly regularly, just like the horse racing. After all, any market is just a collection of human behaviour, which makes things predictable.

It’s helpful to know a fair amount about the specific players, although even if you don’t there is still the option to make a few quid. The simplest tennis trading strategies are built more around the market, numbers, and compression points in particular. Supposed to player based knowledge. Putting the two together though, is much like trading gunpowder!

As with any trading strategy, it’s important to have a plan! Having a plan and sticking to it removes the margin for error. Better still, it allows you to see when you made an impulsive mistake. Meaning you don’t question your overall tennis trading strategies.

Here are a few tennis trading strategies to get you going, or at least thinking down the right routes;

  • Natural compression points
  • Playing the serve
  • Points of over-reaction

I’ll break them all down and explain, one-by-one…

New: Tennis Trading Guide + 1 Strategy Video…

Compression Points – Betfair Tennis Trading Strategies

In tennis there is often a situation where the market will move more in one direction than the other. But be aware – as the game goes on, things can get more erratic. Be very careful if you’re still contemplating betting in the final set (if you’re taking a decision as to how the game will end, it’s best to be done with previously earnt profit).

Late in a match the markets can turn into a real roller-coaster, which of course brings its own value too! I wont mention any here, although there are some killer tennis trading strategies to be used at the end of a match. Just think about it – overreactions equal easy money.

Before employing this strategy it’s best to do some homework. The more you know about the individual player, the better. Some struggle more under pressure than others.

The biggest downfalls in tennis trading, much like horse racing trading seems to be a lack of discipline. Tennis trading strategies are often a lot more mechanical. With there being only two players it’s always going to be that way.

So what’s a ‘compression point’? 

During a tennis match there are often several points of ‘compression’ within the market. These points often arise at crucial points of the game, which is a double bonus. When opening a trade at a point of compression the market is offering more reward in one direction than the other.

Look at this graph as an example, taken from a previous blog post  –

tennis trading strategies 2

If you look at the profit and loss column above, you’ll see the potential loss is £6. To make the same amount of profit the price would only need to hit 1.05

Look at where the area the red line becomes more solid. Tennis trading strategies thrive on these points within a game. Everyone want’s to place a bet where the payout is more than the loss, right?

So if the market is ‘compressed’ at this point, there is a potential opportunity already. But lets not be too hasty. To get that profitable gunpowder like effect, we need to have a reason to open the trade.

Fortunately in tennis there’s always more than one set to be played in any one match. This is often the easiest place to spot one of these opportunities. At the end of a set the price will have reached compression in one direction or another. On top of that it can prove a rather high pressure situation for the players. Especially if the underdog has to serve to win the set. More on the serve in a moment.

So just to make it crystal clear:

When the market reaches a point of compression (lower the price the better). And you have a good reason to bet, such as increased mental pressure on the players. It makes for a good opening trade. In the past, this has produced some hefty wins on the tennis. One of the most reliable tennis trading strategies I know of, particularly if you do your homework first.

Can you think of a time when the price might be compressed, with additional mental pressure bearing down on the players? end of the first set maybe?

Here’s a good resource for player statistics: WTAATP

Here’s a YouTube video I made some time ago. It briefly outlines the first of the tennis trading strategies mentioned.

There are other compression points within a match, if you look hard enough. In my experience the best tennis trading strategies are built around compression points. Make sure you’re careful if playing at a volatile point within a match though, poor discipline will find you out every time!

Another place to trade compressions is during a tie-break, particularly when one player is 3-0 up.

Playing the serve – Betfair tennis trading strategies

Serving within tennis is a very big deal. If you’ve ever played it much, you’ll know this. This is because a server often has an advantage over their opponent. In terms of building a profitable tennis trading strategies this is of great use. If you know when a player is under pressure, you can trade accordingly. Adversely it could help you in making a decision to exit a trade.

Each time a players serve is broken the market will react more than if would have if it was held. The only problem being, players often hold their serve, more-so in ATP matches. Court surfaces can have a substantial effect on the reliability of a players serve as well.

So how do you make the most of this?

Tennis trading strategies like this rely heavily on the players in question. It’s always advisable to go against the serve, as the market reacts more. Going with the serve is possible, although only in specific situations. For example; If John Isner were playing a relatively low-key match, on a hard court surface its unlikely there would be many breaks in serve. John Isner has one of the highest statistics for winning his first serve.

If you bear in mind the point of play also, say the second or third match of the first set, mental pressure will be very low. In this instance it may be a good idea to go with the serve for a game. Although I should warn you to be select! If service is broken the market will move more in the opposing direction.

It’s also possible to work this method in the alternate direction. If a player is particularly poor under pressure, playing on a slow surface like clay then it may be beneficial to lay them. This is where knowing your tennis can really help.

Playing the serve has far more opportunity to us within a match, although isn’t the most reliable of tennis trading strategies. But keeping its use to specific situations, combined with player knowledge can make it a useful tool.

Market over-reactions – Betfair tennis trading strategies

In every type of market on Betfair there are over-reactions. People make mistakes! we’re only human at the end of the day. For the patient trader it can be really quite profitable, whatever your sport is.

Offering a price always carries value. The more consistently you pick up value, the quicker the balance will grow. All tennis trading strategies rely on value in one form or another, this is one of the best as you don’t actually have to know anything about tennis.

The video below was originally created for another blog post as it applies to so many different markets. I’ll explain the exact idea behind what im doing after the clip…

You can see at 3.40 in the video I place a lay at 1.14 and 1.15. This is because I want to offer a bet in the market at a point where I may be matched by someone else giving away value. If it doesn’t get matched I don’t lose. If the point is won and moves to my position I can either get out for no loss or at the very worse case loose 1 tick.

Fortunately it got matched, leaving a big enough gap in the market to provide me the opportunity to exit for a profit. For a worst-case loss of 1 tick I managed to gain 3.5 ticks, im sure the shrewd amongst you won’t take long to realise there are other tennis trading strategies directly related to this.

If only all tennis trading strategies were risk free! This one really is. The problem comes when you wish to increase stakes on a large-scale, which is why I don’t mind sharing it publicly! Give it a go!

Hopefully this insight will have given you a first starting point to build up a list of tennis trading strategies.

As with all trading on Betfair, knowledge is key. Putting one or two reasons for a trade together often result in positive results. Ensuring you test each strategy over a large enough sample, and keeping to the plan is important. The more information on offer, the easier things become!

What not to do…

It’s quite normal to get over-excited and start betting heavy once you find some useful tennis trading strategies. But be aware; each situation and tournament is different.

Different surfaces, players, locations and even crowds can make a difference to a match. Especially if it’s a final where a lot is at stake. Stick to a regular staking plan to avoid unnecessary highs and lows!

Related Article: Horse Racing Trading Strategies

20 thoughts on “Tennis Trading Strategies for Betfair

  1. Hi Caan,

    Thanks for the video re the tennis trading. Couple of questions please, if I may:

    Does this work for both WTA and ATP games, or is it best for the women’s game due to the number of breaks of serve?

    Also, do we look for matches where they are fairly equally matched at the start, indicated by the close odds pre-game? Does this not work as well where there is a heavy favourite pre-game?

    Thanks again
    Simon

    1. Hi Simon, WTA is preferable.

      As you suggest, it’s better tennis trading strategy when there is equal game going on… sometimes the odds dont reflect it mind.

    1. I think its more like I find it less interesting…. obviously the WTA is rather watchable. But horse racing markets are more frantic and exciting.

  2. 1.23 was a good price to lay especially when you look at bet365 offering 1.22 at the same time. Out of interest, what price did you think Back should be at that point? Is that a factor in your decision making?

    Thanks

    Chris

  3. Hi do you have any good tennis trading guides or books such as you pre race trading guide?

    I am new to tennis trading would like to get to speed with it .

  4. Hi Caan,

    i’m going to buy your training guide, just have to wait for pay day. one thing that concerns me all the time is betfair crashing. it happened to me again last week and it wiped out my 200 quid bank. how do you cope when it crashes and you have a large matched trade in the market?

    cheers, clive

    1. How did you lose the £200? I was playing around with £200 stakes on practice mode trading pre-race when it crashed and I was on an open lay trade on odds of 7/8 ! If that horse had won ( I didn’t even want to look ) I would of lost a lot !!.
      Since that moment I have pretty much given up on the idea even though I was making progress I now don’t see the point if one day Betfair crashes and wipes me out !
      The only advice I can give is make sure you are using another exchange with enough money to lay of your bet and try to stick to backing not laying.
      I think I will always have a play around with the horses but only with £20-£50 stakes depending on the odds.
      Also made me think how much money people lost and who ended up with it all ??
      Nice way for them to boost the bank and nothing anyone can do…..

  5. Tried this out a few times today, it’s a nice strategy.

    I’m laying the 1st set winner right after she wins the set, when the price appears to have bottomed out. Obviously you can never 100% know when the price has truly bottomed out, but you just get a good sense I suppose.

    It’s worked on two matches but I’m on one match (Reix vs S Sanders) where it’s currently looking like it may not work. Problem with this match is that S Sanders completely blitzed Reix right out of the 2nd set after winning the first set 6-1, so the price dipped even further.

    So I think I’m going to stay away from matches where one player completely dominates another in the first set. However it seemed to work nicely in those two matches where the 1st set winner won 7-6 (ideal because the match is mixed and up for grabs) and 6-2. What do you think?

    It’s all learning! 🙂

  6. after years of losing on tennis, I am finally realising, that the points you make about getting value on tennis trades, is where I have been getting it totally wrong, thanks for posting these blogs, its really opened my eyes. ( I see Sharapova is giving a couple of tips out also, in the top photo 😉

  7. Hey Caan,

    Thanks for this post it is extremely informative. I like the points made at #2 as it confirmed my thinking about the various tennis trading strategies on Betfair. I’ve read many articles about this kind of thing across the internet and none go in the kind of depth you have here! Thanks ever so much. Your free content is brilliant keep up the good work!

    JJ

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