NFL Trading - Simple Strategy To Copy [Guest Post]

American football is a huge sport that brings a lot of money into the betting markets. If you can find an edge trading the NFL. There is a lot of profit to be made!

When it comes to trading on Betfair each sport has its own intricacies that contribute toward building an edge, sometimes these intricacies are the reason new traders get burnt.

In today’s article, we have an expert professional NFL trader giving us an insight into trading the sport. Covering a simple American football strategy to help get you started.

NFL Trading on Betfair – Why Get Involved?

Why should you look at trading NFL on Betfair?

NFL as a sport is growing in popularity in the UK with many more people starting to watch it. The result of this is that liquidity in these markets is increasing. A lot of the new eyes on the sport are recreational which means the markets are going to be easier to profit from.

Alongside this, the fan base surrounding NFL is so big that there is a huge amount of information about the game that it is easy to find online. This helps when you come to analyze opportunities in NFL trading,

All of these factors make NFL trading quite appealing to those with little knowledge– especially the games on Sky TV.

My number one reason for why I love to trade this sport is the way the game is set up, which leads me onto a simple NFL trading strategy, you can start using to profit from NFL on Betfair.

NFL Trading – Where’s Best To Start?

Let’s get on to the strategy…

Personally I love laying the first team who score a touchdown. The reasoning being is that the game is set up whereby at the start there is a coin toss to see who will receive the ball first.

The winning team are then given 4 opportunities to move the ball forward 10 yards. If they succeed they get another 4 attempts to move 10 yards forward until eventually scoring the touchdown. The ball is transferred to the other team when they don’t move the ball 10 yards within 4 attempts.

This is where the strategy works best (team knowledge key to this strategy).

If the favourite team has the ball this strategy works really really well. Let’s say for example the favourite team is priced at odds of 1.50 or below. If they score the first Touchdown the market usually overreact and the odds fall to around around 1.17 – 1.2.

This is a common overreaction due to the favourite scoring first, causing their price to plummet.

After this happens the opposing team who are now 0-7 down gets given the ball. This is their opportunity to start moving the ball 10 yards and get a return touchdown?

Hopefully, you can see where there’s a small edge to be had.

Breakdown of The NFL Trading Strategy

We lay the team who scores first – Why?

Because they now have to defend, despite a shortened price.
Their price is very low and makes it a low liability lay.
Their opponent is fired up to move the ball and get the TD – increased motivation to counter.
It is a great way to trade because even a threat of a TD can move the fav price from 1.20 (or lower) to 1.30ish and if there is a TD it can go 1.60 or over!
The potential risk is reduced in the market through the numbers, while the potential upside is increased through being awarded the ball.
Market generally over reacts to favourites taking the early lead.

Take this game from last season as an example.

NFL Trading with Colts v’s Broncos

This was a playoff game between the Colts and Broncos. The Broncos started this game well and scored the first TD (their price hit 1.17). This was crazy because it was a divisional playoff game, the opponent were not a poor team and it was expected to be fairly competitive.

The dynamic of the game setup this NFL trading strategy perfectly!

At odds of 1.17 the lay was taken, as soon as they scored the touchdown. This resulted in the Colts getting the ball back and they immediately responded by scoring the next touchdown. This enabled me to my trade at odds of 1.6 locking in a nice profit for the game. One of the great aspects of trading NFL on Betfair is the swing in odds, much like you see in Tennis trading.

To take your NFL trading to a higher level, it is very important to know the situation in play. Trading low odds is always a great place to start, due to the low risk high reward scenario. However without some kind of knowledge or research into a game, it can be tricky to pin point value.

Below are some recommended sites for NFL statistics

Breakdown of The NFL Trading Strategy

Trying this trading strategy blindly on every American football game you see won’t work. However, the strategy framework is very solid if you are learning how to trade the NFL on the Betfair Exchange.

I’d suggest looking for teams that are evenly matched and have their key players playing. You want there to be a strong motivation for the team that are losing to responded. If they are in front of their home fans this is a key game that they must not lose.

Overall trading on the NFL can be very profitable and this strategy is a great starting point!