Champions League Last 16 Preview: Trading THIS WEEK!

The Champions League continues this week with some belting fixtures and plenty of trading opportunities.

It’s been a hectic week of trading, so here’s a quick run-through of my trading thoughts heading into this week…

We have four fixtures this week:

Tuesday 20th:

  • Inter Milan v Atletico Madrid
  • PSV v Dortmund

Wednesday 21st:

  • Napoli v Barcelona
  • Porto v Arsenal

It’s also the last chance to get a 50% discount on the Football Course this week! Last week had highs and lows, between backing Real Madrid to collect and then Bayern Munich losing at Lazio! One thing that is annoying is the two games kicking off at the same time.

Inter Milan v Atletico Madrid 8pm Tuesday

Inter have really taken over at the top of Serie A over the last two weeks. They should win here in my view, and the 1.84 is on the high side. Basic research here would give you some big red flags on Atletico Madrid. They concede an average xG of 1.48 and only create 1.41 away from home this season. The difference is small, but they’re still conceding more than they are creating away from home. I reckon they’ll come into this game in a very cagey fashion, the idea being get back to Madrid with a draw or a 1-0 loss wouldn’t be the end of the world.

Couple of trading options here; the early Under 2.5 goals trade looks good here. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.77 and I can see that shooting down quite quickly. Happy to watch the opening five/ten minutes here and then get involved. Inter won’t start all guns firing, and they are conceding very little in Serie A this season too. I expect a quiet start here and then look to get on Inter in the second half if the signs are there.

PSV v Dortmund 8pm Tuesday

Having done some research on both games on Tuesday, the other game makes a lot more appeal. PSV are in a lesser league in the Netherlands and we don’t have a huge amount of data. Dortmund have also been hit-or-miss this season. Worth noting that Dortmund are also conceding more than they are creating away from home in the Bundesliga but I just don’t have a strong opinion on this game. Happy to focus on the other one.

Napoli v Barcelona 8pm Wednesday

What a belter. European giants, but struggling this season. Both out of their title races, Napoli miles off in Italy. Anyone doing a bit of research on this game would undercover some pretty shocking stuff. Napoli have the highest average xG created in Serie A but they are sitting in mid table! They aren’t scoring, desperately lack a natural goal scoring striker. Barcelona have been conceding a lot of goals this season too and could easily concede a lot of chance. The issue is will Napoli take them?

This is a horrible game for trading in my opinion. You have a side creating a huge amount and not scoring. You have the other side superb going forward but conceding over their xG too. That’s generally a good time to sit on your hands. I can see why the market is so open.

Porto v Arsenal 8pm Wednesday

Porto’s games were very open in the group stage. The opening minutes will be interesting here. My trigger will be an early goal for Arsenal as I feel that they can run riot if that happens. I’d be keen getting on some higher priced correct scores if Arsenal do score in the opening 20 minutes. The stats don’t point to an early Under 2.5 goals trade, I reckon Arsenal at 1.72 is too big outright as a bet too. Wednesday night doesn’t look too hectic, but at the same time this could be a good trading opportunity if we do get that early goal.

Related: Previewing The Last 16: Champions League Trading on Betfair

One thought on “Champions League Last 16 Preview: Trading THIS WEEK!

  1. ciao Caan, ieri la partita inter atletico madrid è andata esattamente come dicevi tu, sono convinto che anche l’arsenal questa sera andrà per come l’hai analizzata tu,

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