There is nothing like a major football tournament to trade on Betfair’s exchange…
Wall-to-wall football and markets flooded with liquidity provide a very profitable trading platform—if you get things right!
With so much opportunity, and the wife or kids wanting your attention, it can be frustrating to balance. So in this article, we’ll share our guide to trading Betfair over the Euros effectively. We’ll cover what to do within the markets and what to avoid. Football betting is exceptionally popular these days, growing bigger each year. It’s a profitable strategy that can make you a lot of money.
Successfully Trading the Euros on Betfair Exchange…
Every European Championship market will be full of liquidity, even smaller games like Slovenia vs. Serbia! This offers plenty of opportunities to get in and out of each market quickly, opening the door to scalping, which might not be as profitable in qualifiers or the Nations League.
You may encounter unique situations where teams need to play for a draw. A classic example was Denmark vs. Sweden in 2004; a draw between them knocked Italy out and put both through. With the current format, the four best third-placed sides advance in the EUFA’s Euros news media, allowing teams to agree to a draw beforehand. For instance, Slovakia vs. Romania has the draw trading at 2.12 before kickoff! These market scenarios are typically seen only in major tournaments or the late stages of a domestic league.
Some trading situations are unparalleled! Before diving into the best trading strategies, consider these key points:
1. Choose Your Market:
Everyone has a different trading style. Do you want to focus on match odds, Over/Under 2.5 goals, or Correct Score markets? Perhaps Asian Handicap or first-half markets suit you better. Choose an area to specialise in and stick to it. With walls of opportunity, it may feel like you’re missing out, but trust me – focusing on what works is paramount. Forget the rest, including their opportunities until you’re edge is well established and you have some experience to go with it. Doing too many different things leads to thinly spread attention (inefficiency).
2. Betting Bank Size:
This is a personal topic because not everyone has the same amount of spare cash. One person’s £10 could be another’s £100 or even £1,000. A good rule of thumb though; is to have a betting bank of 100 points and set a max stake of 5% per market. For instance, with a £1,000 bank, your stake per point should be £10. Start small and work up once you’re performing well. When you truly have an edge, you’ll no exactly – only then should you ramp things up.
3. Pre-Match or In-Running:
Decide whether to trade pre-match or during the game. Pre-match trading involves scalping and predicting market moves leading up to game day, with higher stakes and less volatility. In-running trading requires free time during games and offers quick market movements, but also the risk of goals going against you.
4. Research and Analysis:
Don’t slack on research! It’s essential for finding an edge. Football is becoming very data-driven, so find the best stats websites that suit your needs and provide relevant information for your chosen market. In football, Elo ratings are a great place to start. Knowing those small area’s of human behaviour, be it player or competing traders, is the best place to focus. You have to find some exploitative areas to dial into.
Once you’ve decided on these points, it’s time to implement the correct strategies. Here are two key principles of football trading that apply to any market:
A Simpler Exploit – Time Decay
Time decay is a crucial factor in football trading. With only 90 minutes in a game, the market must move. Time decay significantly impacts the goals market, and one effective strategy is the early Under 2.5 goals trade if you expect a quiet opening 30 minutes. Click that previous link to see a full article on this topic.
The sweet spot is usually between the 10th and 30th minute—use the opening ten minutes to assess the game and decide whether to proceed with the trade. Align your decision with your research, considering stats like the time of team goals.
Compression Points – The Definition of Advantage
Compression points in the market are the opposite of time decay. This occurs when the odds don’t move due to the weight of money, such as when a team dominates the game and traders anticipate a goal. In these spots, time decay doesn’t occur as usual, and the dominating team may move inwards.
These are ideal situations to capitalize on; the goal is to identify the compression point (you’ll get better at this with experience) and aim for a “free shot” at a goal and a significant positive move. The risk is a goal against the run of play, but the compression point minimizes the downside when closing the trade if the goal doesn’t materialize.
Best Mindset Tips for Trading the Euros:
Even with the best trading strategy, a poor mindset can ruin everything. We’ve all experienced a good first half followed by a disastrous second half, or multiple losses in a day. While it’s easy to say “don’t chase losses” it’s challenging to practice. Good discipline takes years to master.
Discipline stems from fully believing in your strategy. In trading, setbacks are inevitable. The only way to handle them is to know that sticking to your trading principles will lead to long-term success. Nobody wins in every market, every day, week, or month.
Accept that you won’t be perfect when starting out. Mistakes are part of the learning process. Don’t be too hard on yourself; the key is to learn from mistakes and improve. Most professional traders develop discipline from past mistakes. Nobody starts with perfect discipline—it’s built over time.