If you’ve ever heard professional gamblers talking about “positive EV” or “+EV” but felt unsure about what it means, you’re in the right place.
Understanding positive expected value (EV) is one of the keys to making smarter betting decisions. Whether you’re a sports bettor or a casino enthusiast, mastering this concept can help you identify profitable opportunities.
In this guide, we’ll explain what positive EV means, how to calculate it, why it’s important, and how you can apply it to improve your betting strategy.
What Does Positive EV Mean in Betting?
In betting, positive expected value (EV) refers to situations where the potential payout of a bet outweighs the risk. This means that, over time, bets with positive EV are expected to yield a profit. While it doesn’t guarantee success on every bet, it highlights opportunities where the odds are in your favour in the long run.
Understanding Expected Value
Expected value is a mathematical concept used to determine the profitability of a bet, compared to the bet probability.
The formula is simple:
- EV = (Probability of Winning × Payout) – (Probability of Losing × Stake)
For example:
- You bet £100 on a football match at decimal odds of 2.5 (6/4 fractional or +150 American).
- The bookmaker estimates a 40% chance of the outcome occurring.
So, the EV is calculated as:
(0.4×250) − (0.6×100) = 100−60 = +£40 (0.4 \times 250) – (0.6 \times 100) = 100 – 60 = +£40
In this case, the expected value of the bet is positive. It means that the bet is expected to be profitable in the long run. However, it’s important to note that expected value is a long-term concept, and it doesn’t guarantee that you’ll win every individual bet. In the short term, anything can happen, and you could still lose even if the expected value of the bet is positive.
One way to guarantee a positive expected value each day is through services like Odds Monkey…
To give another example, suppose you’re considering betting on a roulette wheel. The probability of winning on a single number bet is 2.7%, and the payout is 35 to 1. The expected value of this bet is calculated as follows:
(Probability of winning * Payout) – (Probability of losing * Risk)
=(0.027 * 35) – (0.973 * 1)
= 0.94 – 0.973
= -0.033
In this case, the expected value of the bet is negative, meaning that the bet is expected to be unprofitable in the long run. Of course, it’s still possible to win individual bets, but over time, the house edge will likely lead to a loss.
It’s important to note that expected value is just one factor to consider when making a betting decision. There are other factors, such as risk tolerance, personal preferences, and the potential for excitement and enjoyment, that can also influence the decision to place a bet.
Is Positive EV Betting Profitable?
Yes, positive EV betting is profitable in the long run, but it’s essential to understand a few key points:
- Short-Term Variance:
Positive EV doesn’t guarantee success in every individual bet. Luck and variance play a significant role in the short term, so patience is crucial. - Bankroll Management:
To capitalize on positive EV, bettors need to manage their bankroll carefully. Staking too much on a single bet increases the risk of significant losses, even with a positive EV. - Consistent Value:
The more consistently you find and bet on positive EV opportunities, the better your chances of long-term profitability.
3 Positive EV Betting Strategies:
- Value Betting
Value betting involves identifying when a bookmaker has set odds that underestimate the true probability of an event. These opportunities often arise due to market inefficiencies or public bias.
- Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting guarantees profit by exploiting differences in odds between bookmakers. For example, you might find one bookmaker offering odds on Team A and another offering better odds on Team B, allowing you to cover all outcomes profitably. It’s done with some simple maths, to understand properly check out our arbitrage betting secrets article on the link.
- Matched Betting
Using betting calculators can help you identify positive EV opportunities quickly via bookmaker’s promotions and bonuses. There is a huge range of opportunities with this as there is so much to share. Check out our 5 matched betting tips write-up for a better understanding. This method of EV betting is the easiest by a long way!
Why Positive EV is Crucial for Profitable Betting…
Positive EV is the cornerstone of successful betting strategies. By understanding and applying this concept, you can make more informed decisions and identify profitable opportunities. While short-term results may vary, consistent application of EV principles can lead to long-term success.