If you’ve ever heard professional gamblers talking about “positive EV” or “+EV” but felt unsure about what it means, you’re in the right place.
Positive EV is the core idea behind almost every professional betting strategy. It focuses on whether a bet is mathematically profitable, not whether it simply wins today.
In this guide, we’ll explain what positive EV means, how to calculate it, why it’s important, and how you can apply it to improve your betting strategy.
What Does Positive EV Mean in Betting?
In betting, positive expected value (EV) refers to situations where the potential payout of a bet outweighs the risk. This means that, over time, bets with positive EV are expected to yield a profit. While it doesn’t guarantee success on every bet, it highlights opportunities where the odds are in your favour in the long run. Effectively, it’s a play on how betting odds work – but flipped in your favour.
In simple terms:
- Positive EV (+EV) means the odds offered are better than true probability.
- Negative EV (-EV) means the price is too short and favour the bookmaker.
Understanding Expected Value
Expected value is a mathematical concept used to determine the profitability of a bet, compared to the bet’s probability.
It’s important to note that the probability implied by bookmaker odds is not the same as the true probability. Bookmakers build in a margin, which is why finding positive EV usually means disagreeing with the market (not following it).
The formula is simple:
- EV = (Probability of Winning × Payout) – (Probability of Losing × Stake)
For example:
- You bet £100 on a football match at decimal odds of 2.5 (6/4 fractional or +150 American).
- The bookmaker estimates a 40% chance of the outcome occurring.
So, the EV is calculated as:
(0.4×250) − (0.6×100) = 100−60 = +£40 (0.4 \times 250) – (0.6 \times 100) = 100 – 60 = +£40
In this case, the expected value of the bet is positive. It means that the bet is expected to be profitable in the long run. However, it’s important to note that expected value is a long-term concept, and it doesn’t guarantee that you’ll win every individual bet. In the short term, anything can happen, and you could still lose even if the expected value of the bet is positive.
If your estimated fair odds are shorter than the bookmaker’s odds, you have found a +EV bet. This is the core principle. It’s what people talk about when you hear them say beating the closing line value.
To give another example, suppose you’re considering betting on a roulette wheel. The probability of winning on a single number bet is 2.7%, and the payout is 35 to 1. The expected value of this bet is calculated as follows:
(Probability of winning * Payout) – (Probability of losing * Risk)
=(0.027 * 35) – (0.973 * 1)
= 0.94 – 0.973
= -0.033
In this case, the expected value of the bet is negative, meaning that the bet is expected to be unprofitable in the long run. Of course, it’s still possible to win individual bets, but over time, the house edge will likely lead to a loss.
It’s important to note that expected value is just one factor to consider when making a betting decision. There are other factors, such as risk tolerance, personal preferences, and the potential for excitement and enjoyment, that can also influence the decision to place a bet.
Quick Answers:
- Positive EV (+EV): A bet where the odds offered are higher than the true probability suggests.
- Meaning: The bet should make money over the long run.
- Simple test: If your fair odds are shorter than the bookmaker’s odds, there may be value.
- Why it matters: It’s the foundation of professional betting strategy.
Example: If you believe an outcome has a 50% chance (fair odds 2.00), but a bookmaker offers 2.20, that is be a +EV bet.
Is Positive EV Betting Profitable?
Yes, positive EV betting is profitable in the long run, but it’s essential to understand a few key points:
- Short-Term Variance:
Positive EV doesn’t guarantee success in every individual bet. Luck and variance play a significant role in the short term, so patience is crucial. - Bankroll Management:
To capitalize on positive EV, bettors need to manage their bankroll carefully. Staking too much on a single bet increases the risk of significant losses, even with a positive EV. - Consistent Value:
The more consistently you find and bet on positive EV opportunities, the better your chances of long-term profitability.
3 Positive EV Betting Strategies:
- Value Betting
Value betting involves identifying when a bookmaker has set odds that underestimate the true probability of an event. These opportunities often arise due to market inefficiencies or public bias.
- Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting guarantees profit by exploiting differences in odds between bookmakers. For example, you might find one bookmaker offering odds on Team A and another offering better odds on Team B, allowing you to cover all outcomes profitably. It’s done with some simple maths, to understand properly check out our arbitrage betting secrets article on the link.
- Matched Betting
Using betting calculators can help you identify positive EV opportunities quickly via bookmaker’s promotions and bonuses. There is a huge range of opportunities with this as there is so much to share. Check out our 5 matched betting tips write-up for a better understanding. This method of EV betting is the easiest by a long way!
Why Positive EV is Crucial for Profitable Betting…
Positive EV is the cornerstone of successful betting strategies. By understanding and applying this concept, you can make more informed decisions and identify profitable opportunities. While short-term results may vary, consistent application of EV principles can lead to long-term success.