Markets. Change. Survival.

Posted on Posted in Horse Racing

Survival in Betfair Markets

There’s always plenty of negative talk about markets changing… which can be quite worrying if you’re about to put your heart-and-soul into this trading malarkey.

The idea of discovering edges only for them to disappear of the face of the earth is a little scary. In the past I was a little anxious about it too

Of course it holds some truth; some things that worked very well previously may not work as well just now. But several things are forgotten:

It Works Both Ways…

You rarely hear people saying the complete opposite; Why? probably because they’re too busy sucking all the profit they can from the situation.

Trust me, it does happen in reverse too… more about that in a moment!

Secondly, people seem to look at this problem as an external thing. That doesn’t involve them… I guess it feels a lot better to look at things like that, right? I mean it’s not your fault then is it. But the reality of trading exchange markets is learning is a huge part of the game. I’m always pushing for additional knowledge.

Expecting things to stay exactly the same day-on-day for years at a time isn’t too realistic. There are plenty of timeless edges to be used, although even they will vary in effectiveness depending on many factors. I guess what I’m trying to say is; knowledge is key. Always keep learning, to extract as much profit as possible.

Just recently I caught up with another Betfair full-timer. If you’ve been reading the blog over a year then you may have seen a guest post he wrote. What he had to say was quite interesting, and proof of market changes working both ways…

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Changes For Another Pro Trader

I don’t really have too much to do with the greyhound markets on a daily basis, purely because the horse racing markets offer me so much more. But greyhound full-timer ACG as he’s known on the Geeks Toy forum trades them 4-5 days a week.

Every now and then we catch up for a chat (you can see when he came to the UK and we met for a beer here).

It was pretty impressive to hear that something had changed drastically for him in the greyhound markets over the last few months. Profits had soared, but nothing else had changed.

His trading style hadn’t changed at all… if anything he’d been trading a little less (one of the perks of making more cash). So why had it happened?

The markets he focuses on had changed a little, there’s now more liquidity he tells me. Which is a direct result of the televised coverage and scheduling available. Basically more people are watching and betting on the dogs which gives him the opportunity to turnover more bets and larger stakes with regularity. Pretty cool right?

It’s still not one for me with the horse racing on offer but it’s something to think about, especially next time you see some negative spin on market changes.

ACG

With ACG at Crayford Dogs!

Related Article: Greyhounds Trading Strategy.

3 thoughts on “Markets. Change. Survival.

  1. Good point Caan. I find greyhound markets very volatile , but I dabble small-stakes tentatively, due to me being a novice.
    I’m interested in becoming skilled at greyhounds — due to the convenience factor. The evenings are loaded with races, making opportunities thick n fast. And this would suit are part timer fine/as there’s plenty of weekend action. Horse racing trading, as you well know , is basically a day shift/early eve (in BST)

  2. Hi Caan,

    Horses for courses!

    You can’t use Cheltenham Gold Cup stakes at Chelmsford, and it’s inefficient to do the reverse. The markets are different this month to last, so ‘adapt or die’ as they say.
    I’ve struggled this month, my worst in the last 6, but I’m starting to get on top of it now and am just a bit frustrated it took me so long to adapt.

    Cheers,
    Leon

  3. Hi Caan, I left a reply earlier and put my full name, could you change it to just my first name, Leon.

    Cheers mate

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