Chances of Success…
It’s often reported that around 91-95% of market participants lose over the long-term.
If that’s true, then things don’t look good from the outset… although it’s quite easy to see why the remaining 5-9% make large sums of money.
Being a long-term loser sucks, a lot. So I’ve put this post together to help you on your way to the successful few.
Avoiding the 95%…
In order to avoid becoming one of the 91-95% you’re going to need to do something different. That’s pretty obvious, right?
It’s a good start… and it certainly doesn’t all need to be ‘doom and gloom’. Just by taking it seriously you’ll be significantly closer to the winners pack.
Of that 95%; I wonder how many have sat and watched more than 1,000 hours worth of markets?
If you watch 20 hours a week, that’s nearly a whole years worth of trading. Which isn’t a huge amount of time in the markets…
It can be quite challenging to watch so much around an ordinary job though, there are other options though.
The fastest way of making progress I know is to read, lots. Which is probably another reason why 95% haven’t made it yet, how many books have you read this year? Obviously not all books are of great use, but one is always greater than zero!
People are naturally impatient too. Warren Buffet is known to have said;
the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient
Trading Betfair and Betdaq is no different.
It took me a hell of a long time to realise, but you only really need one decent trade in each race to make a good income. You don’t even have to know what the entire market is doing, although that can help.
The number one problem, that some can’t ever over-come is discipline and patience. Trading is like a sniper laying in a field, they may lay there for 23 hours of the day just watching and waiting for that clear opportunity. When it arises, boom that’s it!
Trading the betting markets is a little less boring I must admit, but it’s the same sort of approach. Building knowledge and understanding is under-rated, much like the skills of a sniper taking that shot… waiting for the right moment, considering all the factors like the wind, his breathing etc. But of course, the bit everyone just remembers is the shot… or the trade and profit in our case!
Going all hap-hazard in your approach won’t work is what im trying to say, that’s what most of the 91-95% are doing.
Learn from the crowd – Spot Biases
Biases exist everywhere! Humans can’t avoid them…
Watching the crowd (that 91-95%) can offer some huge clues at times. People behave the same way again and again. This is why it’s sometimes possible to use a bias you learnt in the horse racing markets over in the tennis!
Ask yourself ‘why’ – Extra Edges
By asking yourself why something happened or happens it can make things very interesting. And even if you don’t find it interesting, you should do it (if you want to make more money!).
Understanding the ‘why’ part brings the added benefit of being able to see what makes that particular edge efficient. Which means you know when to stake-up and when to ease-off. Also it can spark new ideas for other edges… which obviously means more success.
For each strategy there is usually a polarizing strategy. Knowing why it is or isn’t happening for you at that point in time can offer the opportunity to go the other way.
A great example of this would have been the now retired trainer Barney Curley. His horses were routinely gambled, and everyone knew it. In the market this meant; as soon as the money started to go down there would be a massive free-for-all of traders and punters trying to back the selection that was being seriously bet, a great opportunity.
BUT… when there wasn’t a sausage for one of his horses what happened?
Yup, they would drift like an absolute barge… providing an opportunity in the opposite direction. If you’ve been betting for some years the chances are you would have seen a Curley runner’s crumble or drift like a two legged-donkey in minutes. I’m just sad he’s retired!!
For anyone that didn’t know ‘Why’ the market was behaving like that in them moments, it would have been pretty painful.
Related: Trading Guidance
Commitment – Don’t Stop!
Finally, the one thing that 90% of the 95% of losers aren’t interested in; commitment. I’m talking about, full-on serious focus.
During my journey to profits I almost gave up, several times. If you read back far enough on this very blog you may have seen. The scary part was I almost stopped just before things came good, which made Edison’s quote my favourite;
Many of life’s failures didn’t know how close they were to success when they gave up. – Thomas Edison.
It’s often only the lucky few that strike gold straight away. Not everyone can expect that, but by persisting, recording results and avoiding making the same mistakes twice success is still very doable.
If you want results like that, you’ll need to commit like the rest of the 9%…
Ohh, and avoid the nay-sayers at all costs! They make up a large portion of the 95%
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