At last, I’m starting to feel better again, though not completely over this bug. Hopefully, tomorrow I’ll be back in peak condition.
The last couple of days, I’ve pretty much just slept all day and night in between being ill. It’s given me a bit of time to think about the markets and watch the prices move from morning to afternoon without the added intent of placing any bets. This in itself has been interesting; it’s led me to look into some things more deeply than I had previously, probably because I wasn’t placing any bets.
Longer-term trading is something that fascinates me more (and by that I mean longer term than ten minutes before the start). 90% of the entire matched volume occurs within the final ten minutes, making things tricky, although I think there still has to be some good potential on offer.
Just not through turnover…
Longer-Term Betfair Trading…
For example, recently Holywell ran a mediocre race and was priced at 11.5 for the 2015 Gold Cup prior to the start. I was tempted to open a Lay position, although the idea of having a sizeable stake invested at 12 didn’t really appeal as I don’t often operate a huge bank like some. That said, it’s now priced at 14.5, which would have been some easy money.
Being effective at long-term swing trades from the evening before/morning leading up to the afternoon is of great interest.
Why? Scalability.
The problem is that early on, there isn’t always that much to get matched against.
It would also do the mental outlook on the race in hand no end of good to turn up well in the green. I sometimes place trades in the morning to profit as the morning develops, but in the coming weeks, I hope to develop more of an angle. At this stage, it’s not that efficient.
The thing that I find most fascinating with this approach is that some horses seem to have very little support in relation to price, which leads to some wild drifts. There’s something I’m missing though, yet to find the final piece. The hardest part at this stage seems to be fully understanding when the true volumes arrive in the markets.
I also suspect that different influences coming at different times can sometimes skew the results of what could be a profitable strategy in the making. Any feedback on this kind of thing from those further down the path than me is always welcome!
I think long-term trading has to be one of the best time/value ratios when it comes to making a profit. Trading in the final ten minutes is great, but being able to walk away and then come back to profit is somewhat cooler.
Related Article: Guide to Scalping Betfair Trading
4 thoughts on “Longer Term Trading Improvement on Betfair Exchange”
Hi caan . My name is mark and have been viewing your videos online . Have decided that I would like to take this up as my new career . As such would like to be taught . Was wondering do you have the patience to teach one 2 one ?
If so would really like to spend some time in your presence and learn .
Hi Mark, have done in the past although not really something im looking to do at the moment.
Thx for replying caan . Would still like to try to understand wether this is the right move or not . Am a london cabbie and have had enough of dealing with the public . Want a change and would love this to work but need to understand thru your eyes . Your wealth of experience is invaluable. I really like listening to your videos as your easy to listen to and have great communication skills . Would like to still try to persuade you to change your mind about educating me ! As you obviously like to or want to help others . If I could chat using another format or maybe sometime meet and watch you in action would be more than eager to see if this is for me . Need a mentor !!
I did this before by identifying movers using the arbitrage software. It was profitable for a while but i ended up losing some money and quit. Main problem is you dont have liquid to exit when you are wrong and you have to monitor the trades every hour to spot which one to cut loss, not feasible for traders with full time jobs