Betfair Traders Always Make This Mistake… Do You?

So Goodwood is upon us, a poignant meeting that marks an important point for the racing seasons each year.

I’ve traded so many Goodwood’s now that I know what to expect. To be totally frank, it’s one of those marmite meetings for me. Occasionally it trades very well, but on the whole, I’ve often come out the other side feeling quite frustrated. Results are usually quite average.

Despite the media hype and bluster, the markets can be a little trappy in places. Most of the genuine money will come late (in comparison to other well-publicised racing events).

So the first point of business is to recognise this and act accordingly. Something I often say, which I think sometimes is misinterpreted is;

“it’s not just what you do it’s a case of what you don’t do”

Recently I reviewed one of the community users personal trades and uploaded it for all to see, you can see the links to it on the community forum if you’re subscribed.

I mention this because it was clear to me from the outset; they were doing the majority of things correct, but just in the wrong time frame. I suggested they tried a little bit later on and not feel so eager to get involved. Since that update, Andrew has responded once more to say that the one small change has had an impact on his results. This was something I too experienced many moons ago, keeping it in mind at Goodwood is crucial.

It’s very easy to underestimate the importance of skipping out those “maybe” trades that have the potential to harm your bottom line. It’s a simple piece of advice that’s extremely effective.

A Simple Exercise to Improve:

Trading too early often leads to overtrading which maximizes risk. Keep things tight this week, manage the downside and pick your battles wisely. You won’t regret it!

Consider skipping out some race types that you expect do not suit your trading style on focus. It may sound counterintuitive at first, however, a small short-term experiment like this could be the catalyst to substantial change overall. Sometimes, experiencing that change is far more powerful than just reading it as advice like you are now.

Another similar but powerful experiment that you can try is to limit yourself to specific trading windows. For example, only allow yourself to trade in the last 2 minutes before post time in one session. See what happens…

At the very worst, you’ll miss an opportunity for a little profit. At best, it’ll create an important memory that has a meaningful impact on your trading as you go forward into the future.

Consider this example:

An illustrative example of common results:
13:00 Beverley	Novice Stakes	-12.32
13:10 Yarmouth	Handicap	+14.15
13:30 Beverley	Selling Handicap	+9.88
13:40 Yarmouth	Novice Stakes	+6.33
13:50 Goodwood	Handicap	+25.63
14:05 Beverley	Novice Stakes	-17.24
14:15 Yarmouth	Handicap	+12.44
14:25 Goodwood	Group 2	+27.22
14:40 Beverley	Handicap	-3.22
14:50 Yarmouth	Handicap	+15.22
15:00 Goodwood	Group 2	+48.88

 

Overall results for the first 11 races on the card being £126.97.

Now, consider the following changes and how it reflects in the results:

• If you remove novice races from this trading session. £150.20 profit (8 races)
• You removed Beverley races from this trading session. £149.87 profit (7 races)
• If Group 2 races were your only focus. £76.10 profit (2 races)
• You only traded Goodwood races. £101.73 profit (3 races)

Sometimes less is more. Now, consider your used the time and focus you gained from trading fewer races and re-allocated that to Group 2 races, Handicaps and Goodwood.

Not all opportunities are equal. But of course, as I say, highlighting this is one thing – seeing it in your own results is far more powerful.

I’ll update the blog again later this week with my progress over Goodwood so check back soon and let me know how you get on if you should try such an experiment.

Related: 3 Horse Racing Trading Strategies for Betfair