After a long wait, the Euros arrive! It should be a banger when it comes to trading football.
I’m so glad the pubs are open again. I’ve spent a little extra time in the beer garden just this week, as I’m sure plenty of you will be for some 8pm games (hopefully not whilst trading though).
I was going to start a topic on the Community Forum with my thoughts on the games, although several have asked I get back to blogging like I used to. So I thought maybe a blog/journal over the Euro’s might be a good idea. I’ve covered many topics in the past (which is why I update less now) so have a peruse via the menu’s and search box at the side (or below on mobile).
First, we kick off with Turkey v Italy on Friday night at 8pm from the Stadio Olimpico in Rome…
First Match: Turkey v Italy
There’s a couple of trading angles I really like here:
Italy look huge to me, but I’m not in a rush to lump on. I know Turkey beat France in qualifying, but they were bang average in the Nations League since. I can see Italy bossing the game and running out easy winners. The 1.55 is too big for me – but there will probably be better opportunities in play.
Being the first game of the tournament, I would expect a pretty cagey and slow start. I can’t see Turkey coming out all guns blazing from the start and Italy’s average goal time in the qualifiers was 27 minutes. Turkey’s was 47 minutes. I can see a clear scalping opp here early on, it just depends on what market you’d like to target – there are a couple of options: u1.5 goals, u2.5 goals or the draw. Maybe even target the first half markets. First half 0.5 goals is always a dangerous market but over 0.5 is trading around 1.6 and that can shoot to 2.0 quickly.
Although I would expect a slow start, the second half could be completely different. Turkey are limited in my opinion, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Italy score a couple of times late on. We can certainly have a last 15-minute goal if you like that strategy from the Football Video Pack. If you look at Italy’s recent games, a lot of goals have come in the final 15 minutes. Just a quick look at the qualifying stats shows they scored 40% of their goals in the final 15 minutes. I know that was against weak opposition, but Turkey aren’t a top side either.
Hopefully, we can get off to a good start with our possible trades. As always, a goal in the first minute or two can blow things up but I would be quite confident we should see some great scalping opp’s after the first 5/10 minutes. Always let the game settle before getting involved. The best time might come between 15 and 30 minutes. I like to be out of the market before the build-up to HT. And then Italy to run riot late and hopefully we can get some juicy prices in running.
I plan on highlighting my possible angles on my blog, but for my research, I usually use Infogol and Footystats.
Infogol will give you a wealth of information for this tournament. Footystats won’t quite be as good, but you might find this page interesting – it’s the stats from qualifying, although that has been a while ago now. And also this page from the Nations League might highlight some good trading opp’s too.
Related Blog: How to Find Average Goal Time Statistics Fast
Great to see your blogs back. I’ve completely lost my trading drive so hopefully you will inspire me again. I love the simplicity of your blog and unbiased/unspomsdor nature.
Best of luck to England in the Euro and fingers crossed it will be another long run for us Welsh boys
Thanks, Rod. Slow start as expected in this match…
Look out for the next update.
Looks like you called this one right then !
Indeed, Terry. We can’t call them all but as long as we’re making the right percentage calls overall that’s al that matters!
well,you got it right yesterday for all 1000%..i will keep an eye on your blog 🙂
Fingers crossed 🙂
Spot on with the slow start, backed the draw 1st half. O/ 1.5 second half. Good start to the tournament.
If there was one thing that was inevitable in this instance, it was the slow start…
Why don’t you set up a live trading chatroom? I’d definitely pay to be a part of that!
We have a community forum where people do exactly that! It comes with any of the courses 🙂
Will you prefer Euros matches trading on football or ascot this week?