After a long wait, the Euros arrive! It should be a banger when it comes to trading football.
I’m so glad the pubs are open again. I’ve spent a little extra time in the beer garden just this week, as I’m sure plenty of you will be for some 8pm games (hopefully not whilst trading though).
I was going to start a topic on the Community Forum with my thoughts on the games, although several have asked I get back to blogging like I used to. So I thought maybe a blog/journal over the Euro’s might be a good idea. I’ve covered many topics in the past (which is why I update less now) so have a peruse via the menu’s and search box at the side (or below on mobile).
First, we kick off with Turkey v Italy on Friday night at 8pm from the Stadio Olimpico in Rome…
First Match: Turkey v Italy
There’s a couple of trading angles I really like here:
Italy look huge to me, but I’m not in a rush to lump on. I know Turkey beat France in qualifying, but they were bang average in the Nations League since. I can see Italy bossing the game and running out easy winners. The 1.55 is too big for me – but there will probably be better opportunities in play.
Being the first game of the tournament, I would expect a pretty cagey and slow start. I can’t see Turkey coming out all guns blazing from the start and Italy’s average goal time in the qualifiers was 27 minutes. Turkey’s was 47 minutes. I can see a clear scalping opp here early on, it just depends on what market you’d like to target – there are a couple of options: u1.5 goals, u2.5 goals or the draw. Maybe even target the first half markets. First half 0.5 goals is always a dangerous market but over 0.5 is trading around 1.6 and that can shoot to 2.0 quickly.
Although I would expect a slow start, the second half could be completely different. Turkey are limited in my opinion, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Italy score a couple of times late on. We can certainly have a last 15-minute goal if you like that strategy from the Football Video Pack. If you look at Italy’s recent games, a lot of goals have come in the final 15 minutes. Just a quick look at the qualifying stats shows they scored 40% of their goals in the final 15 minutes. I know that was against weak opposition, but Turkey aren’t a top side either.
Hopefully, we can get off to a good start with our possible trades. As always, a goal in the first minute or two can blow things up but I would be quite confident we should see some great scalping opp’s after the first 5/10 minutes. Always let the game settle before getting involved. The best time might come between 15 and 30 minutes. I like to be out of the market before the build-up to HT. And then Italy to run riot late and hopefully we can get some juicy prices in running.
Infogol will give you a wealth of information for this tournament. Footystats won’t quite be as good, but you might find this page interesting – it’s the stats from qualifying, although that has been a while ago now. And also this page from the Nations League might highlight some good trading opp’s too.
Related Blog: How to Find Average Goal Time Statistics Fast