We’re into the business end of the group stage at the Euros now and we’re likely to see some crazy markets.
Desperate play, crazy tactics and some huge swings in-running. Are you ready?
Although we’re in the group stages, this is basically knockout football now, the sides know what they need to do. No doubt there will be some interesting markets coming up when sides only need a draw. Check out the Ukraine v Austria market for example!
From a trading point of view, it’s a shame the games kick off at the same time. It’s totally understandable. Although we have two games today, it’s actually one really. Anyone that has enjoyed the Football Course knows how difficult it can be to trade two games at once. I prefer to focus on one, with the scorelines available for another. It just works so much better for managing your position, although you don’t miss out if the other game gets turned upside down.
Nevertheless, let’s crack on and look at the trading angles for each game today…
If you’ve missed any of the previous updates, see this Euro’s trading blog category.
Italy v Wales @ 5pm
Both sides can enjoy this game as they are both through to the Knockouts. Even with a loss and dropping out of second, although their goal difference is good, Wales will get through in the third-place rankings with four points.
Italy have been excellent and they have become one of the likely winners looking at their performances. I wonder how they will stack up against the top sides though. They hammered Turkey who are poor and the 3-0 win over Switzerland was much more impressive, but then against Switzerland are short of being top class too. Wales hammered Turkey, but they were lucky to draw with Switzerland. We have benefitted a lot from slow starts at the tournament thus far, but the latest stats scream goals here.
I say the latest stats because Wales have been trying to keep it tight at the back lately. But they create an xG of 3.83 against Turkey in an excellent display. They didn’t create much against Switzerland, but they’re always going to be a threat on the break with Bale and co. Italy has been excellent, xG’s of 2.03 and 2.5 with a long winning run. Over 2.5 goals looks value at 2.28 here. The problem I have here is backing overs isn’t ideal for trading. You are waiting for a goal and the market ticks against you. It will be about finding times when the pressure is high in front of goal and the market is stalling. I don’t like working against the market and will keep the stakes small, if I should play. We could definitely see some second half trading strategies come into play here. Let’s see if the in-play data lines up at halftime though.
Switzerland v Turkey @ 5pm
This is another game when the bet I am interested in will be going against me. I’m all over Switzerland to win here, but again as I mentioned above it’s about finding the right moments in terms of risk v’s reward. Ideally, I want to market to stall, and you can have some time for Switerzland to attack without the market going against you. Turkey has been one of the most teams in the Euros IMO. They have comfortably lost both their games, but with the third-place ranking system, there is still a chance that a win would see them through.
What does that mean?
Surely they have to attack at some point and not just defend. It seems to me, defending is all they can do and when they start to open up they really suffer. When they conceded the opening goal against Italy, it was one-way traffic afterwards with Italy all over them. Then they conceded an xG of 3.83 against Wales. If Switzerland score early, then I will be looking for some juicy prices on handicaps and goals.
The last 15 minutes will look tasty here if Turkey are chasing the game. Switerzland were completely outplayed against Italy but played well against Wales. A similar performance would see them hammer Turkey. There’s plenty of strategies to look at here, but because I favour Switzerland winning so much most of them will have the market working against you which I know isn’t ideal.
Switzerland’s average goal time in qualifying was 41 minutes, so maybe it’s worth laying under 0.5 goals at HT when it goes odds on and we have around 10/15 minutes left in the half if 0-0. A late first-half goal would possibly be ideal looking at what could happen in the second half. We might see something crazy like Any Other Home Win at 9.0 in the correct score market. In all likelihood, I will just focus on the Swiss winning as that’s where the main value is.
Related: Trading Knockout Football On Betfair