It’s the final day of the group stages on Wednesday and we actually have a fantastic day. The two groups are wide open and I’m hoping that brings some big in-play swings.
England’s performance last night was ok although the second half was pretty poor with an xG of 0.0.
Four games today so I won’t waste any time and share my trading thoughts.
The fixtures are:
- Slovakia v Spain
- Sweden v Poland
- Germany v Hungary
- Portugal v France
The situation in the two groups is more or less the same when you look at the points. Anything can happen!
Slovakia v Spain @ 5pm
So far I’ve avoided a strong view on Spain games and I think I’ve made the right call on that one. They’ve had two draws but have been playing good football. Their xG figures were 2.89 and 3.18. Pretty incredible that they haven’t won a game. Its OK playing pretty looking football, but you need to convert your chances. This could be the day they hammer someone, as Slovakia are bang average. Poland shouldn’t have lost to them, but a point would do for Slovakia so they will have XI behind the ball for as long as it stays 0-0. As highlighted in Spain’s opening two games, I don’t look at their stats and see a major angle. The one thing that jumps off the page here is their xG figures. We know they are in great form, just not winning. Their price at 1.23 is hardly worth getting excited about though.
You can check out future xG figures with Infogol here.
Even though Slovakia will be focusing on defending here, I don’t fancy having a large stake on unders with the way Spain are playing. If Spain are ahead at HT, I’ll look at some fancy prices on goals, maybe a decent correct score price (Any Other Away Win) because Spain could run riot if Slovakia have to open up. This is one to check at HT, and watch the other 5pm game for the most part.
Sweden v Poland @ 5pm
Very open market here so there could be plenty of opportunities. Poland has been disappointing at the Euros and at the moment liquidity isn’t as strong in this market as the others so I’ll be watching to see if Poland drift. They have had all the luck so far in the sense that they were unlucky against Slovakia to lose and very lucky to draw with Spain. That leaves them needing a win here which should see the game open up. Sweden’s tactics will be fascinating, and I will be focusing on how they approach the game and line-up. They top the group at the moment, a draw will be enough. They played pretty well against Spain though, they didn’t deserve a draw but there could have been a lot of goals in that game. A traders mind would say Sweden set up negatively, but their tactics suggest they might not be able to do that. The xG figures from their qualifiers suggest they like an open game. Their Nations League games had plenty of goals too.
This game could majorly kick-off. Very interested in over 2.5 goals here and maybe something higher at fancy prices if play is open at the start. This will be a difficult trade, however, as the market will move against you. Looking for stalling points, making sure the xG figures are quite high and there’s plenty of chances is a must. I’ll sit on my hands early, and then look to get involved if play on pitch supports my pre-off research. Poland has no choice but to go for it and Sweden could go toe-to-toe. Let’s see how they start.
Germany v Hungary @ 8pm
This is a very similar situation to the Spain game earlier in the sense that Germany is trading 1.2. That’s the shortest price of any side at the Euros. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them tick in to the 1.1x’s. Although the prices are the same as Spain, the tactics are a little different. Hungary needs to win, so they have to go for it here and shit could hit the fan for them. I assume if Hungary try to attack, Germany will run riot here. Hungary have one of the worst attacks in the tournament looking at the stats by the way, so just because they have to attack doesn’t mean they’ll do a good job of it!
After losing to France and beating Portugal, Germany could settle for a draw with the third-place rankings but they’ll go all out for a win here.
My tactics for this one will be the same as the Spain game. Look at the prices and stats at HT, and go from there. A lot of goals are priced in here. Let’s see where we stand at HT, no point chasing the market.
Portugal v France @ 8pm
What a banger to finish the groups. France should have this group in the bag to be honest but they threw it away with a draw against Hungary. That Hungary goal came from nowhere, and France did have a decent xG so it was just one of those days. They still look very strong. Portugal were involved in probably the game of the Euros so far with Germany when they lost 4-2. I was very sweet on the Germany lay, and very thankful Portugal scored first!
I’m going to half my stakes for this game, but I do like the early unders trade and maybe adjusting risk on the way down. France has been keeping games very tight recently, and a draw would suit Portugal too. It’s hard to see either of them “going for it” from the start, and I expect a cagey start. Half stakes because of the quality players playing tbh. I really don’t see the benefit to Portugal of playing an open game here.
What a quality day to finish the group stages. Plenty of sides have to chase games and get results today. We have a couple of days off and then into the knockouts which should bring plenty of good trading opportunities too as teams change their tactics.
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