I think it’s fair to say we’ve all be waiting for Today! England’s first Euro’s game and great weather, what more could you want?
It’ll be BBQ time for me with a few mates to enjoy, but there are still some very interesting angles for traders…
I highlighted in my Day 2 Blog that we could see more favourites smashed up pre-off after the big move on Italy on Friday night. Another example of this was Switzerland in the first game on Saturday. Something I’ll be keeping an eye on with interest:
The market was correct too, although we didn’t see a goal in the first half. Switzerland were all over ’em. It was a classic stalling point with the market very keen to get on Switzerland in the middle of the first half…
Yesterday was an odd day. I had very good results with an easy win for Belgium etc, but it was hard to focus after the Eriksen situation. I had just traded out nicely on our slow start strategy, but that was horrible to see. I can’t believe the cameramen and media showed so much of it. Incredible. Thankfully he got to hospital alright.
So what’s up next?
Three games on day 3:
- England v Croatia
- Austria v North Macedonia
- Netherlands v Ukraine
Another top quality day, but there’s something I want to highlight. As good as trading is, it’s also so important to get away from the screen and enjoy time with your mates. That’s why I’m having a BBQ for the England game. Remember, trading should fit into your lifestyle, not the other way around. There will be Monday’s games too, and the whole week – I don’t want to miss a nice day just because there’s a chance to make money. Something I’ve overlooked in the past!
England v Croatia
This is England’s toughest group game, as they should beat Scotland and Czech Republic.
It’s easy to get carried away with the hype of England, but they should beat this Croatia side. Looking at the Betfair chart at the moment, you can tell people are keen to get on them, I can definitely see them coming in from the 1.65/1.67 at the moment. They are ticking in nicely, and we could see another big pre-off move here – one to definitely keep an eye on. Croatia was poor in the Nations League and Luka Modric can’t carry them as much as he has in the past.
Interestingly, a lot of stats point to an early goal here. This is a game to avoid the first-half trade on under 2.5 goals or scalping. We could see 0-0 at HT, but I still feel it’s one not to get involved on. Seeing the game to stay out of is just as important. Croatia’s average goal time in qualifying was 25 minutes, with the average first goal coming earlier. They have changed since the World Cup, but at the World Cup it was 27 minutes for the first match goal. Considering England’s average goal time is even shorter, it’s wise to not scalp here.
It’s never a huge tactic to back goals because the market is working against you most of the time, but I’d be looking at over 0.5 first-half goals if the price shoots out to 2.0+ early. Keep stakes low. I’d also be keen to get on late goals, and perhaps a few spicy prices for plenty of second-half goals at HT – this all depends on how the game is going of course. My main tactic here is to sit on my hands early, be ready for goals, and try to benefit from some overreactions if no goals come. Under 2.5 goals is 1.74ish – I’d fancy over 2.5 goals but let’s see how everyone lines up first before getting involved. Short-term things can change quickly.
Austria v North Macedonia
If pre-off betting was my thing (it isn’t!) Austria would be my banker today. 1.8 looks massive, absolutely massive. They are flying under the radar coming into this group looking at their xG figures. That’s why I love xG so much – it unearths little nuggets like this. Austria’s qualifying campaign was impressive and they played North Macedonia in their qualifying group. They won 4-1 and 2-1, but if you look at Infogol the xG figures across the two legs finished 8.87 to 1.31 in Austria’s favour. They are miles clear of this North Macedonia side.
Like I said I’m not mad about pre-off betting, but I’m happy to have a few quid on Austria here. I can see North Macedonia sitting down and trying to defend to I expect a cagey start. Austria’s average first goal time in qualifying was 28 minutes and they returned some impressive xG figures. With North Macedonia’s longer than that (end of first half), I feel this game could easily go like the Turkey v Italy game on Friday night. With that in mind, I’m happy to trade unders and scalp early and then look to get some juicy prices on Austria. I’d want to be out of the trades by the 30th minutes as I wouldn’t rule out an Austria goal coming up to HT looking at their stats, and I’d be keen to use the Last 15 goal tactic from the Football Trading Video Course here too.
Netherlands v Ukraine
This is another game where I want to avoid trading unders and scalping. The Netherlands have made some good progress lately, but they have stalled since Koeman left. They play an open game and had some crazy high scoring games. I would not be keen at all to have a big stake on no goal here – I know opportunity can present itself at any moment and the tempo might turn out to be slow, but I’m still happy to avoid that strategy here. Ukraine got relegated from the Nations League but I thought it was crazy they “lost” the game they couldn’t play 3-0 due to Covid. That was very unfair IMO.
Netherlands scored a lot of late goals in qualifying and while they did seem to calm down a little in the Nations League, Ukraine had late goals – they beat Spain too. Again, the market will likely move against you in the Last 15 Strategy but I feel it’s worth it here. Especially if we see an open game with either side chasing the game. I like goals here, would have over 2.5 goals odds on and have this game down as one to avoid scalping.
I’m guessing with a BBQ for England, the head might be a little sore for Monday so I’m going to do a brief run-through of my thoughts for Monday’s games now. Check back closer to the time as I might add some thoughts if anything changes.
- Scotland v Czech Republic
- Poland v Slovakia
- Spain v Sweden
Scotland v Czech Republic
With England and Croatia in your group, this is a big game for both sides. I can see a very cagey start here, and this is definitely a game for some unders trading and scalping early doors. We have an open market, so I wouldn’t be surprise to see the draw move in a little quicker than usual. Interestingly looking at the stats, I wouldn’t want to be scalping during the early bit of the second half – oddly both sides score their goals between 46 and 60 minutes. This game screams a slow starter and a low scoring game though, and it’s just about how you want to play that – under 1.5, 2.5, maybe even under 0.5 first half goals although that’s risky as there’s no comeback and then trade the draw. Scotland beat Czech Republic twice in qualifying, so I’d be tempted to lay Czech Republic in-play too if Scotland are marginally on top as they don’t create much. Wouldn’t rule out a famous Scotland win!
Poland v Slovakia
I felt England could see a move pre-off in their game, and Poland could see a big move here too. Poland are much better than Slovakia who are bang average. To me Slovakia are a very boring side, and their stats more or less back that up. They were relegated in the Nations League and weren’t impressive in the playoffs against Ireland and Northern Ireland. I’m confident Poland win here, but I do fancy another slow start. Slovakia aren’t going to offer much going forward, and the stats scream that Poland are slow starters. This is another highlight game for the slow start tactics – any way you want to play it – Poland’s average goal time in qualifying was 39 minutes. They didn’t score a single goal between 16 and 30 minutes – a scalpers dream. And then they only scored one early goal in the Nations League – most of their goals come in the build-up to HT so I’d want to be out after 30 minutes. My tactics here will be to scalp/trade unders after seeing how the teams start and then look to get on Poland when the best opportunity comes.
Spain v Sweden
I’m not strong on this game, so please factor that into your staking and thinking. Looking at the stats, this might be another game for the slow start but I’d want to be out of the market by the 30th minute mark. Spain looks a little short but they should beat Sweden. They met qualifying and Spain hammered Sweden – xG finished 6.15 to 1.75 to Spain over the two games. I can’t wait to see what Spain do at the tournament – the manager has made some random decisions. The 24 man squad? No Real Madrid players? It’s Barcelona all the way for Spain this year!