I’m back in the hot seat today after being in recovery mode for most of Monday.
It’s fair to say the BBQ got a little messy after England won. Hazy Jane was the main culprit…
If you haven’t tried it yet, I recommend giving it a go. It’s by far the best of the Brewdog range.
Although I was kicking back in the sun, it was good to see things pan out as expected once more. I don’t like to be so bold with the early predictions as trading is somewhat dynamic and situations change fast, but so far, everything has played out as expected. I hope the blogs have been of use and you’ve made few extra quid!
It’s good to see that at least one of you has with Sam tweeting yesterday after following the previous suggestions in these blogs.
I was happy to take it easier than usual on Monday because it’s a massive week. It’s hectic enough trading the Euros, but we’re going to add Royal Ascot too!
I think I’ll be OK as I have a lot of experience of things going wrong when trying to trade too many markets at once. That’s one thing to really be aware of this week if you’re relatively new. Don’t spread yourself too thin – pick a market and focus.
Only two games from the Euros on Tuesday:
- Hungary v Portugal
- France v Germany
The group of death!
Hungary v Portugal
This is a must-win game for Portugal as they have France and Germany in their group. They should be able to hold their own, but beating Hungary is a must for everyone. They shouldn’t have any problems either, as the stats really highlight how poor Hungary are. They had an xG of only 1.1 per game in qualifying. They topped their Nations League group but most of their games were low scoring, apart from a crazy 3-2 against Russia. They had Russia and Turkey in the Nations League with them, and been pretty average.
My in-play plan would be to get on Portugal at the right prices and the opportunity presents. Hungary had an average goal time of 42 minutes in qualifying and didn’t score many early goals in the Nations League too. Portugal’s average goal time was 32 minutes but they scored a lot late on too. I would be cautiously trading the under 2.5 goals market along with some scalping on the downward pressure. However, I wouldn’t go mad on that strategy here because I reckon there’s a huge gulf in class between Portugal and Hungary. Portugal is pretty impressive looking at the stats IMO.
The last 15 minutes will probably be the most interesting from a trading perspective, depending on the scoreline. Portugal apply a lot of late pressure – but I’d want them to be chasing the game so we’ll just have to wait and see how that situation develops. To sum up, Portugal wins, small trade no early goal, confident last 15-minute strategy if conditions are right.
France v Germany
This is a cracker. Looking forward to this one. If you read the little Infogol preview they say that it’s “surprising to see France so big.” I agree. France looks much better than Germany here, and with them being tournament favourites I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big pre-off market move from 2.8. This will definitely be on my radar for today. Aside from thinking France are massive – nothing jumps out on the stats here. If this was a Premier League game, you wouldn’t have it earmarked as wide open. I’ll play this one in-running as I see it and try to target some overreaction but my only thoughts here is the France pre-match move and France to win.
Related: Euro 2021 Day 3 Trading on Betfair
Thanks for the update I’m really loving these blogs you are doing for the euros you should consider doing them for other sporting events too will you update about Ascot this week? I know its a lot to ask haha but thanks you are an inspiration mate.
I’m a long time football gambler and your analysis is very useful. I do a lot of research and I think you should keep this up!