Is it day seven already and the Euros are flying by and it’s even more hectic with Royal Ascot on too!
How have you found it? It’s been hard to decide where to focus the attention overall. Delays at Wexford early yesterday had me thinking about the footie more. It’s a real pain when another card clashes with Ascot…
Roasting hot and crazy busy aren’t the best combo but yesterday was a fair day. Finland v Russia went as planned in the previous blog.
Today is another very busy day, so I won’t waste any time. Heading straight onto my thoughts for the following games. The tournament has gone superbly so far, long may it last.
Three games again on Thursday:
- Ukraine v North Macedonia
- Denmark v Belgium
- Netherlands v Austria
Ukraine v North Macedonia @ 2pm
North Macedonia’s first game was a dream for trading with Austria winning and playing the last 15 minutes. They held their own for large parts of the game but still gave away a reasonably big xG. I was keen to avoid trading unders on the Ukraine v Netherlands game, and although it did finish with five goals, it was 0-0 at HT. I’m still happy we avoided the unders as the thought process and planning was good, we just had to wait for the goals. This game might be different though. North Macedonia are going to sit back and Ukraine aren’t exactly an attacking side.
There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides, Ukraine should win and I’d be interested during the second half. There have been some juicy prices before late goals. Portugal and Austria come to mind, where we went into the game thinking about a last 15 goal anyway. We could see a very similar game to the Austria v North Macedonia game. Ukraine’s average goal time in qualifying was quite early so I’m a little keen to avoid high stakes on the early unders trade or scalp out a little low-risk profit. This is a game for small stakes, a small early trade on unders with North Macedonia sitting back. Ukraine in the second half, managing our risk and playing the upside in-running if the signs are there.
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Denmark v Belgium @ 5pm
A lot of stuff has come out since the Finland v Belgium game. I said yesterday in the blog that Finland benefited from it hugely and now the Denmark camp are more or less saying they shouldn’t have played. It was a difficult situation, and it’s only with hindsight you see the light. Sometimes it’s the same with trading. You have to make the mistake to learn from it. Who could have prepared for what happened though? And in the tournament, when would the game have been played. Like I said, credit to them for playing but Finland got all the benefit!
That leaves Denmark in a tough spot. And Belgium looked excellent against Russia. I was surprised to see the price that Belgium went off at against Russia, I know they were missing Kevin De Bruyne but that was common knowledge. Perhaps Eden Hazard on the bench but he looks fat, LOL!
I’m very interested to see what the pre-off price does and I will be watching it closely on the Betfair charts. You’ll see the volume coming in and I reckon this could be a mover either way.
Whatever way the Belgium price moves pre-off, I think they are massive at 2.0 or bigger. Even more the Eriksen incident, I wasn’t too keen on Denmark before the Finland game. I went with a slow start and that trade landed instead of the Denmark lay and then when we saw Eriksen collapse, I didn’t trade the rest of the game.
Denmark’s average goal time in qualifying was into the second half. I wouldn’t put anyone off the early unders trade, but I won’t be doing it. I’ll be looking to get on Belgium at the right times. Take a close look at Denmark here – what kind of energy will they have after what happened?
Who knows what they are going through and where their heads are at. Belgium all the way for me here. If things line up in-running, late goals too.
Netherlands v Austria @ 8pm
This is a cracker, but from a trading point of view, it might be one for the beer garden.
As I said above, I was keen to avoid the early unders play on the Netherlands v Ukraine, and I’m also keen to avoid trading unders or scalping in this Netherlands game too. Fair enough it got to 0-0 at HT, but they are too open for me. They give away too many goals under this manager, and I’m not comfortable having a large stake on them. Look at Finland v Russia for example, I know Russia scored very late in the first half, but neither side barely created anything. There will be better opportunity around than this game. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Netherlands turned over, but a no bet game.
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