Another busy Saturday ahead of us. Yesterday I focused on Royal Ascot. With all the changes in going and non-runners, there was chaos and opportunity at the same time.
Saturday looks busy with the Euro’s and last day of Royal Ascot. I’ve enjoyed trading at Ascot, but I’m also looking forward to focusing on football that bit more from Sunday onwards. It has been tricky trying to manage the two and swapping between them.
The three games on Saturday are:
- Hungary v France
- Portugal v Germany
- Spain v Poland
Hungary v France @ 2pm
Hungary are a very poor side, and it might pay to focus on Royal Ascot instead of this game. Especially on a big Saturday. France are 1.34 on Betfair and if anything they should be shorter, not bigger! Hungary can only hope for a 0-0 looking at their attacking stats. Their xG was just 0.23 against Portugal and their stats from qualifying are just as bad. They conceded more chances than they created. They look woeful up front, and I know France gave Germany a lot of the ball the other night, but they always looked comfortable at the back. They were happy to sit on their 1-0 lead with confidence. I was on France, and I didn’t want to see them approach the last 30 minutes like that, but Germany could barely create anything and that’s a sign of a very solid French side.
There’s a huge gap in class here, and that always makes trading difficult. I feel when a side is trading around 1.34 there are only a handful of options:
- Target the early unders trade if the smaller team are solid at the back
- Wait and target the bigger team as they drift but increase the pressure
- Scalp the bigger team on the way out if you expect a substandard performance
None of those strategies applies here IMO. I’m sure Hungary will try to defend for their lives, but I just don’t fancy being on no goal when Hungary look so poor. I will be trading Royal Ascot during this, BUT I will be keeping an eye on a possible trade on a French clean sheet. BTTS is around 1.65. Keep an eye on that market, I’d be surprised to see Hungary score.
Portugal v Germany
When you’re not too fussed about the first game of the day, this is a banger.
I disagree with the market here too. France are a top side, but they gave Germany a decent platform in the second half and Germany didn’t create much. We’ll find out here whether that was down to France being good or Germany being limited, but I’d have the match odds different here. Germany are too short at 2.4 and Portugal are too big at 3.4 in my view. Portugal are a classy outfit and have some top-class players. I’ll be looking for some nice movement laying Germany once the game settles down, or potentially after an early goal. We saw on Thursday how important it is to let the games settle in Denmark v Belgium. I strongly fancied Belgium, but Denmark scored after a few minutes and then the whole plan changes. Belgium turned it around in the second half.
I expect a very tight game here. I would definitely consider the unders trade early, clipping the market on the way down with limited risk. Portugal are rock solid at the back. I felt Germany could have easily been caught a few times on the counter in that second half against France. I know they were offside, but how many times did France score on the counter?!
The Germans look a little slow at the back, and Portugal have some excellent players going forward. If Portugal were in the lead and Germany were chasing the game, I’d be all over the last 15 strategy, providing conditions are right.
Three main target plays here will be:
- Unders trade early after seeing the first five-ish minutes and play supporting the strategy
- Portugal to win but lay Germany when opportunity is good in the market
- Last 15 Strategy if Portugal ahead/Germany chasing the game
Spain v Poland
Much like Hungary v France, this is another game where I don’t see an opportunity from the start.
Spain were held to 0-0 against Sweden in their opening game, but they played very well. Their xG was 2.89, and they could have easily won 3-0/3-1 and nobody would have argued with that. I didn’t expect Poland to lose to Slovakia, they didn’t play badly but that was a poor result on the big stage. I reckon Poland will play alright again here, but Spain will surely outclass them and score a few. They are creating good chances, they just have to take them.
I didn’t fancy anything for the Spain v Sweden game, and perhaps maybe it’s Spain putting me off but there doesn’t look to be an edge here. Poland’s average goal time in qualifying was 39 minutes, and they are a little inactive in the first 30 minutes of their games, but I don’t fancy having a big stake on unders when Spain are involved and playing well.