Just how good have the Euros been so far? This tournament has had just about everything…
Every England fan should be buzzing, but not only for us, the other side of the draw has some excellent match-ups. It helps that the markets have been kind to us too of course, our strategies have been paying off (fingers crossed for no major blips in the future).
I’m excited for the Quarter Finals, so let’s get stuck in with my in-play trading thoughts.
The two Quarter Finals on Friday:
- Switzerland v Spain
- Belgium v Italy
Switzerland v Spain @ 5pm
These two were involved in the day of the Euros so far. Both drew 3-3 on the same day against France and Croatia. Usually, you see some mad double screenshot on Twitter, but I didn’t see one this time? Nobody saw that coming!
From a trading point of view, Spain and France backers were rewarded as they both lead 3-1 with ten minutes to go and hit 1.01. Gamblers lost out, but when you can trade out for pennies at 1.01, why not?
Anyway; onto today. I’m very surprised to see Spain so big at 1.73. I see that as a massive price and I have it earmarked as one of the prices likely to come in before kick-off. I’ll be watching the volume like a hawk to see if that comes true and we can jump on the trade. If not, I’ll be looking for stalling points and the right times to get on Spain. I wouldn’t even mind Switzerland scoring first and getting on Spain then. I don’t like the market moving against me so this will make this game difficult to trade from that point of view, but Spain has been very impressive and I can’t see a bigger edge than trading their price.
So far they have finished with xG’s of 2.89 v Sweden, 3.18 v Poland, 3.63 v Slovakia and then 4.36 v Croatia. Those stats are incredible. They are performing. They might have had three draws from four games, but you can see how good they are playing looking at xG. We haven’t had many positions on the games involving Spain, mainly because of their xG figures. They are creating so many chances I want to stay away from the early unders trading or scalping because I’m not comfortable having a large stake on no goal most times during the 90 minutes when Spain are involved. Finding the games to avoid are just as valuable as finding the games to target with unders. It’s Spain all the way for me – both for pre-off movement (if volume comes) and in-play at stalling points if the in-play data supports it.
Oh, and don’t forget there’s a tonne of second-half strategies here that apply for Football Video Course users with this being a knockout game. Let’s see how it’s going, but we have last 15, most of the goals strategies and accelerated time decay of course depending on who’s in front and what their tactics are.
Belgium v Italy @ 8pm
This is another game that’s very similar to England v Germany for trading strategy. What I mean by that is, the stats don’t support an early unders trade, however, looking at the match-up on paper would suggest a very cagey start. Italy has a long unbeaten run going, but this is their acid test. They’ve yet to meet a side like Belgium – they only had the Netherlands in their Nations League group, had a soft group in qualifying and then had a soft group here too. You can’t knock their xG figures, they have performed, but let’s see how they get on against a top side. Belgium is a quality, quality side. Interestingly, from a pre-off point of view, they have drifted out before the games. Definitely watch out for that again here because Italy has been pretty popular. After the Turkey win so many people were calling them the winners on Twitter!
Belgium had a very cagey performance against Portugal. If you look at the xG figures you can see Portugal were unlucky to lose. I expect another cagey performance here, and Italy hasn’t exactly attacked in the first half either. I can see a very similar start here as we had in the England v Germany game. The unders trade and scalping on the way down paid off handsomely there, and we can see the same happen here. We’re starting a little lower here at 1.64 compared to the 1.8 in the England game so we can take our time but I do expect a slow start here. The sides really suggest a slow start, but let’s see how we start.
Other than that, I’ve no set plan for the second half and I’m keeping an open mind. If it turns into a very dull game, target some accelerated time decay as we head for Extra Time or target some overreactions on a goal maybe but I’m opened mind how the second half goes. This should be a quality game.