Another week at the Euros! The next two days will be very enjoyable because the racing on Monday’s and Tuesday’s usually isn’t that good.
I have to say I was surprised to see the Netherlands lose yesterday. The red card changed the game though and there was no way back. That side of the draw is really opening up now… if England can beat Germany they will have an excellent chance of at least the Final!
Two belters today:
- Croatia v Spain
- France v Switzerland
Croatia v Spain @ 5pm
If you’re a fan of using xG and Infogol, then you look at the stats and see that Spain will win! Ok, it’s not always as easy as that! But this game seems exactly like the Wales v Denmark game on Saturday. Spain may not have won all their group games, but they have been playing excellent football. Their xG’s have been 2.89 v Sweden, 3.18 v Poland and then the big 5-0 win finally arrived against Slovakia. I know Slovakia are a poor side, but those goals were coming looking at the chances they are creating. Possibly a little fair to say they should have moved in a little more in the Outright market too given the way they are playing?
Compare Spain’s figures to Croatia’s. Their xG’s read 0.54 v England, 1.07 v Czech Republic and 1.04 in the 3-1 win over Scotland. They actually conceded a bigger xG too. They don’t look as good as they once were, but I think everyone knows that by now. They look there for the taking in my view, and I’ll be looking to get on Spain here at 1.62 or bigger. I don’t like betting, so I won’t be backing them pre-off. I’ll be looking for them to create chances, control the ball and finding stalling points in the market so it’s not ticking too much against us waiting for a goal.
I haven’t fancied much in the Spanish games, largely because I didn’t see anything worth focusing on in the stats. The same applies here with average goal times – I don’t fancy the unders trade or scalping on the way down. You can see looking at the xG figures that a big chance is never far away with this Spanish side. With the knockout games, we always have the opportunity to react to events on the pitch or some accelerated time decay towards the end but mainly I will be focusing on getting on Spain at (hopefully) the right time(s).
France v Switzerland @ 8pm
This game doesn’t inspire me when doing research. France should win, but I’m keen to see how this one goes in-play and have no real opinion on their price at 1.6 until kick off. Switzerland has a nice side, but they were played off the park against Italy and that performance worries me from their point of view. They were unlucky to draw with Wales, but I would expect France to be on another level. Apart from the Portugal game, which was a cracker by the way, France have kept their performances quite tight. They look rock solid at the back, so the early unders play is definitely a possibility here. I wouldn’t say the stats fully support it, but the way I see the sides approaching this game does, so let’s see how the game starts. Really keeping an open mind with this one, as nothing jumps at me pre-off.