We step up a gear at the Euros on Saturday with the last 16 kicking off…
It was nice to have two days off trading because the tactics will change massively from today. I would expect to see more cagey performances and teams not watching to give away too much. Compare that to the final day of the groups; we saw 4+ goals in all four games. I know the stats said to expect goals in those games, but it was carnage.
I saw yesterday that UEFA has done away with the away goals rule for the Champions League and Europa League for next season. That’s pretty big news, and I’m looking forward to seeing what changes we see next season. No doubt the Champions League section of the Football Course will have extra content by the end of the season to reflect the changes in strategy we see on pitch. Anyway, back to the Euros.
Two games on Saturday:
- Wales v Denmark 5pm
- Italy v Austria 8pm
Wales v Denmark @ 5pm
If you’re a fan of xG like myself, then you’ll be a fan of Denmark here. The way both sides are playing point heavily to a Denmark win, and I’ll be very interested to see what the Denmark price does before the off. I’m assuming a good bit of “mug money” coming for Wales on Betfair but we could see the big syndicate money on Denmark. Wales played very well against Turkey, but you have to consider that Turkey lost all three games. The only other side to do that was North Macedonia. Wales didn’t deserve the draw against Switzerland, their equalised came against the run of play and the xG figures say Switzerland should have won. Looking at the Denmark figures, they have been consistent, but how great was it to see them qualify after what happened with Eriksen in the first game! Their xG figures were 2.09 v Finland, 1.99 v Belgium and 2.52 against Russia. They look like a classy outfit and they should beat Wales.
I’m not a major fan of backing a team and forgetting about it, so I will be looking for stalling points in the market and I want to see Denmark building pressure. I’m expecting Wales to sit back here; they have been mainly focused on defending lately if you look at their recent figures and unders has collected in their three games of course. Under 2.5 goals starts at 1.58 and we could definitely see early movement in there. That will be my first port of call here, trading unders and scalping on the way down. I will reduce stakes however, as I fancy Denmark so much here.
Main thoughts here:
- Look to see if early unders trade possible based on play on pitch (expecting cagey start)
- Look for the right times to back Denmark as 1.91 looks massive value
- Look for accelerated time decay late second half if Denmark are ahead (I know Wales scored against Switerzland in this section of the game but that came from nowhere)
- Also, don’t forget the accelerated time decay on draw/unders because neither side are going to risk losing from here with Extra Time to come etc
Italy v Austria @ 8pm
We have had some really good success trading Italy games, so hopefully they go far in the tournament. I’m not as confident on the Italy win as the Denmark win above, but this is another situation where you look at the xG figures and can’t see past Italy. Austria are a good side though, and they are solid at the back too. So this could easily be very similar to the early game in the sense that I’m interested in the possible early unders trade and I’ll be looking to get on Italy at the right times too if the opportunity presents itself.
Italy’s xG figures have been just as consistent as Denmark’s above, they created 2.03, 2.5 and 2.26. I think it’s fair to say this could be their toughest test yet. Austria was impressive in qualifying and topped a Nations League group. The ideal plan would be very similar to our trading strategy for the Turkey v Italy game on Day 1.
Italy looks a classy outfit, but they have yet to concede either. If they start a little cagey, I can easily see 0-0 at HT and then hopefully we can get on Italy in the second half. Under 2.5 goals is 1.77 and we could see some nice movement on that. My trading plans will basically be a mirror of the early game here, except I won’t be targetting late accelerated time decay here because Italy look so good.
Great to be into the knockouts now. There should be some excellent opportunity to benefit from our strategies. Roll on the England v Germany game on Tuesday too!