The quote above leaves me with mixed feelings. After my time in the military, it’s one I’ve come to both value and appreciate, but also somewhat loathe—usually because it’s just another way of saying “get on with it” in an unfavourable situation.
The image also sums it up well; I see it often in a property developers group I’m affiliated with. When faced with a problem, there are always two main options: get on with it and make the most of it, or give up and fail indefinitely. Choosing the first option can be challenging, especially with all the negativity people grow up around in today’s world. I try to remind myself to take that first path as much as possible.
So, how does this relate to the markets on Betfair?
As I’ve said before, every change in situation presents an opportunity. And for each opportunity, there’s usually a counter-strategy—which, on the surface, can be frustrating because it should make making money easier, right? In reality, despite these opportunities, it’s a bit more complex.
For example, just about everyone knows by now that if a horse gets a soft lead in a race, its price is likely to shorten considerably within the first 30-40 seconds, depending on the situation. But what if the situation changes just as the horses approach the start? Imagine another horse suddenly charges to the front, and the one you expected to lead jinks to the side. It may already be priced slightly shorter than it should be because so many people anticipated it would lead and placed back bets on it. Now, those people are in a tricky position and will likely need to exit their positions quickly—often in a bit of a frenzy (as I discuss in the market make/market take video on YouTube). Because of this, an overreaction isn’t far off—a valuable counter-strategy? Definitely. This can also be an ideal place to enter the market if the horse in question isn’t actually at a disadvantage and others are scrambling to lay off their initial bets at a much higher price. We’ve all seen it and, likely, been there.
The real challenge arises when you don’t stick to your plan—or, better put, when you don’t stick to it quickly enough. Losing money is part of trading, and thinking of losses as “expenses” is a healthy mindset. But holding on a bit too long because you don’t like what you see is almost always a recipe for disaster. This is where things go wrong in most cases. It’s easy to say, “Ah, it’s impossible,” but had you reacted quicker and done what you know you should have in the moment, the losses would be smaller, and the profit at the end of the day/week/month much larger. Bit of a ramble, perhaps, but I think it makes good sense.
Switching strategies without second-guessing yourself too much and acting on what you know to be correct (and doing it fast) can often lead to some hefty profits. That’s something that comes only with experience. But always stay open to improvising…
2 thoughts on “Seeing Beyond the Problems and Negativity…”
Thanks for this post, I haven’t traded for a couple of weeks now following a loss of over £350 in one race! Was going ok for while, £25/35 profit on any day’s trading in and around work, then one race, let it go in play, had a plan, horse showed ability early on and bang, wins easily, had the option to get out for a small loss but didn’t act quickly enough! This post is exactly what I did, and have taken time out as feeling shit about it, even embarrassed in myself, but reading this helps and has made feel liking starting again, so although a ramble from you, it does make a lot of sense to me. Cheers Cann, don’t stop rambling!!!
Thanks, its easy to go off on a tangent !