I’m getting nervous now, are you? Can England really do it or is this semi-final going to break the nation’s heart?
Once again the build-up will be immense. This England side is very exciting, and quite easy to support too. Let’s hope I haven’t just jinxed our chances.
I was very confident England would beat Ukraine, I even got the scoreline right…
“The platform is here for England to win 3/4/5-0 and really set the tournament alight. Maybe I’m biased, but Ukraine are there for the taking.“
I’m nervous about this one though. Denmark is a classy side, and they are playing good football too. I’m jumping straight into my trading thoughts below.
England v Denmark @ 8pm
The first thing to watch here is what happens in the pre-off market. I felt England would come in against Ukraine, but they actually went on a massive drift. They hit 1.6 before kick-off. Denmark drifted too, and they have been subjected to a drift a few times before kick-off at the Euros. Fascinating market. My gut would say England drift a little, but I do feel they are a little short at 1.75 anyway so perhaps the market will just correct. The country was buzzing before the Ukraine game, but that feeling didn’t filter into the betting markets.
Denmark had a slow start but they also had an incredible experience with Christian Eriksen collapsing against Finland.
Their xG figures have been very good:
- 2.09 against Finland
- 1.99 against Belgium
- 2.52 against Russia
- 2.96 against Wales
- 1.61 against Czech Republic
Consistent. Interesting they dropped off against the Czech Republic, and they also conceded 1.7 which was their biggest figure to give away. England controlled the game against the Czech Republic in the group stage. The overall vibe on Denmark is good though. England has had an easy time of it so far so Denmark will be their toughest test.
The Outright prices before the two semis were;
- England 2.66
- Italy 3.35
- Spain 4.1
- Denmark 11.5
There’s a lot of hype around this England side. Rightly so, they have a huge amount of young talent in the squad.
But you would be worried looking at the xG figures:
- 1.50 against Croatia
- 1.67 against Scotland
- 1.13 against Czech Republic
- 1.33 against Germany
- 2.15 against Ukraine
They clearly aren’t creating as much as Denmark. BUT, they have been controlling games. They never had a worry at the back in the group stage, and to be fair haven’t conceded a goal yet. Their big test was Germany, and the stats said it was a pretty even game. Home advantage is massive though isn’t it?
We landed a nice trade early in the under 2.5 goals market in the England and Germany game, but I’m keen to avoid that here. I don’t want a large stake on unders or trying to scalp. Denmark’s average goal time is 18 minutes. They haven’t been shy about having an open game either. Under 2.5 goals is around 1.7 – I’d have that bigger from a betting point of view, but then you always have the market working against you (especially early) backing overs waiting for a goal.
This game is very similar to the Italy v Spain game IMO. The stats don’t point to a huge angle.
My thoughts for that game were:
- Pre-game trading (watch for volume)
- Catching an overreaction to a goal
- Looking for compression/stalling points while sides are on top
- Plenty of accelerated time decay in the second half if opportunity comes up
- Also, be ready to catch some lateral thinking trading
Pretty much the same applies here. Another big game, and very neutral stats. No need to dive in when we’re not 100% committed to a strategy just because it’s the semi final.
Match odds wise, I think England are short. I have been a fan of Denmark since their opening two games because their xG figures point to huge value against Russia, Wales and the Czech Republic. They’ll give England a proper game here. I’m pretty nervous about this one as an England fan.
Personally, I’ll be keeping out though, it’s just wrong to cross work with play at this stage. Plus I want to enjoy watching the match. I’ll be with the family this time around so the craft ale can wait for the final haha!
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