The seasons are changing, and so are the markets.
Every year the same thing happens. In the past it’s caught me out on occasion, although the fortune of experience means it’s something that no longer affects me (much). But it’s important not to forget either!
As the seasons change, the racing does too. And when the racing changes, the market have to. Along with betting behaviour…
Ignoring the changes will leave you wide open to one of those side-winder blows we’ve all experienced one time or another. Seeing it coming is an advantage.
September / October…
Typically these two months throw up weaker markets.
When I say ‘weaker’ I mean the average racing markets are less fluid. Sure, there’s still plenty of money sat about although it’s usually these months where less ‘genuine’ punters money comes into the markets.
There’s many reasons for this… here’s a few:
- Less prize money on offer – poorer quality racing means less price money, just look at Wolverhampton markets
- Back to the course – you’ll be seeing a few upsets with horses coming back to the track after a season off
- Lack of form – much like the point above, less form means less hype, and less betting in general
But of course, with change comes opportunity. There will be some good opportunities on offer, all be it slightly different to what you may have been used to in the last few months. As a rule of thumb you can expect the average day-to-day markets behaving more like all-weather races. You may even see a few more unexpected gambles!
In general it may be a good idea to slightly tone down pre-race stakes, and get a little less trigger happy.
With less genuine money in the market two things happen, neither of which benefit traders:
- Entries – Less money to match against means you may not get filled at the price you offered
- Exits – Less money to match against when exiting may mean you have to take unfavourable prices
The latter is more of a concern to me, particularly when using enhanced stakes. Wanting to exit a position good or bad is tough when there is less money flowing though the markets.
In summary the advice is; sit back and sharpen your edges, take the time to improve your understanding. The Jumps will be in full flow soon….
Horse racing traders often get frustrated in the winter months with even cancellations and poor weather. Over the last couple of years it hasn’t been so bad.
When I first started I remember weeks at a time being snowed off. Less than ideal…
It took a while to realise but the most value in the winter is being able to see more of what drives the markets. There’s less betting volume for sure, but that also means it’s easier to see whats going on. This can then reward you weeks later as the hype picks up and there’s more opportunity to use larger stakes. It stands to reason, the key is being patient for now.
The festive period can be pretty lucrative, if you can tear yourself away from the family for an afternoon or two. It’s a great time to get an idea of which horses are being hyped up in the media before Cheltenham too. Taking the long-term attitude is key this time of year is what I’m trying to say… be sure to make the most of everything!
Related Article: Revised – Horse Racing Trading Strategies