3 Football Betting Systems Built on FACTS

Having good football betting strategies is a must if you are aiming to be successful and make a long term profit.

There is so much liquidity (money) available on Betfair, that you only need a little edge at various stages within the 90 minutes market, or pre-off, to make a lot of money trading.

In the below video, I have picked my top three football betting strategies and detailed why they work:

  • System one: Low-risk over-reaction trading (3:50 minutes)
  • System two: Targeting safe areas to exploit time decay (8:38 minutes)
  • System three: Parallel market intent (12:56 minutes)

Football Betting System: Reaction Value

When you think about football as a sport, what comes to mind first?

Naturally one of the first things that comes to mind is the fans, the drama and the emotion. That is extremely important when it comes to betting. There is a lot of emotion in football and this spills over into the betting markets.

Profiting from overreaction is always going to be a massive part of any football trading strategy. There is so much of it, that’s why I picked it as the first strategy to go through in the video.

In a nutshell, at various stages of the game there are ideal times to benefit from an overreaction. This is mainly after a goal when the market hasn’t adjusted enough or more commonly goes too far in with the price and has to move it back a handful of ticks. In the first few seconds after a goal, we see a lot of panic and over-reactive betting. Check out the charts in the video above!

Pre-Match Markets – Low-Risk Football Betting System

Another way to utilize emotion in games is to look at an immediate overreaction after a team has a great result. If Man Utd are playing on the Saturday against Arsenal and win 4-0. The market on their next game is going to be influenced by this, often you see a price shorten for popular teams on their next game after a standout result.

The market then settles and sharp money starts to come in on the opposite as the emotional response to the last game has moved the market too much in favour of the popular team. If you are aware of this, you can profit pre-match by trading the market sentiment. This is a very low risk football betting strategy as the market will always overreact to big wins, unbeaten runs, lots of goals etc for well-supported teams.

Trading emotional responses is certainly one the best football betting systems to use if you are looking to be a long-term winner.

Exploiting Time Decay Betting Strategy…

The next strategy is based around time decay. The logic behind time decay is that chance deteriorates over time – it’s as simple as that!

Finding the right moments to implement the strategy is the hard part, which I have discussed within the video. Time decay is straightforward as we know the market will move in one direction, and you need to tie it in with playing intent and motivation on the pitch as to when you enter the market.

The key to this strategy is protecting your bank and looking for what areas offer the best opportunity. You should target times of accelerated decay and focus on minimum exposure. I’ve given a few examples in the video as to when to implement the strategy.


One of the best scenario’s for this strategy is when a strong favourite is entering the last 20 minutes of a game and the score line is even. Laying these teams is a good idea as at 70 minutes onwards many backer they start to look to exit the trade.

Every missed opportunity, loss of possession or free kick to the opposing team often see’s a big drift in their odds. Allowing you to build profits against the favourite as each minute ticks by. This strategy is is best used with live pictures when you can see that the favourite is clearly struggling to break down the opposition and create chances.

The other upside is that if the underdog scores you can win your full bet with little time remaining for the favourite to pull two goals back. If the scoreline remains even you build up more and more profit as time ticks away.

If you are looking for a football strategy that really works, this is one you should add to your portfolio!

Parallel Intent Strategy:

The last football betting strategy we will cover is parallel intent.

So, what does that mean? It’s two markets that are related to the same event and when one changes, the other should change too. Sometimes this is called lateral trading.

A classic example of lateral trading could be Manchester City are playing on Sunday and Wednesday, in the game on Sunday Haaland gets injured and it looks like a bad injury. The odds for Wednesday’s game will then have to move to reflect that Man City are missing a key player. This works with a host of different variables, for example, a ban for a red card can have the same outcome.

Other markets that can be affected are outright markets. For example, we have Euro 2024 coming up this summer.

Let’s imagine Kylian Mbappe gets injured in the first game for France and is stretchered off holding his leg. This could mean that he will miss the rest of the tournament and as France’s best player it is going to decrease their chances of winning Euro 2024. This will be reflected in the outright market and their odds would drift.

This strategy is more or less the fastest fingers first, however, if you are watching the correct markets at the correct time then you will beat the crowd. Most traders don’t think ahead and don’t have the future markets open and this presents an edge if you can react quickly.

Related: Betfair Trading Courses

2 thoughts on “3 Football Betting Systems Built on FACTS

  1. Hi Caan,
    Im looking to get into trading football; is your video course pack for £147 completely applicable to football trading or is it more geared to trading horse races?

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