NAP is a term that you may have heard in sports betting, particularly in horse racing…
At first, it might seem puzzling, although understanding what it means and how to use it can give you a cleaner view on the days racecard. It could even enhance your betting.
In simple terms, NAP means a tipster’s strongest bet of the day.
If a horse racing tipster has several selections, they’ll usually mark one as their NAP. This is the horse they feel most confident about based on form, conditions, and value in the odds.
Where Does The Term NAP Come From?
Strangely enough, the term ‘NAP’ originates from a 19th-century French card game called ‘Napoleon,’ commonly shortened to ‘Nap.’ In this game, players bid on the number of tricks they believe they can win, with the highest declaration being ‘Napoleon,’ symbolising supreme confidence in victory. This sense of assured success carried over into horse racing, where tipsters adopted the term to describe their most confident selection—the ‘NAP of the day.’ Over time, it became a shorthand for a tipster’s strongest bet, offering bettors a focal point for their betting decisions.
NAP Betting Strategy for Horse Racing:
When it comes to selecting the NAP of the day, a horse racing tipster will look at several different elements to find the best selections:
1. Horse Form
Tipsters closely study a horse’s recent performance to gauge its capabilities. Factors like recent finishing positions, competition strength in previous races, official ratings changes, and improvement trends provide insight into the horse’s current condition and potential.
2. Jockey Performance
The jockey’s skill and track record play a significant role in a horse’s performance. Tipsters assess the jockey’s success in similar races, their familiarity with the horse, and their capacity to handle various track scenarios.
3. Trainer Statistics
A horse’s trainer also holds significant influence. Tipsters evaluate the trainer’s win rates, particularly at specific tracks or over certain distances, along with how well they prepare horses for races.
4. Track Conditions (Going)
The track’s surface and condition, often referred to as the “going,” are vital factors. Horses perform differently on soft, firm, or heavy ground, so tipsters analyse prior performances on similar surfaces to determine suitability.
5. Distance Suitability
Not all horses thrive over the same distances. Tipsters examine whether the selected horse has proven success over the race distance and consider whether it’s stretching beyond or staying within its comfort zone.
6. Draw Bias
The starting position, especially in flat races, can impact a horse’s chances. Certain tracks have a draw bias where starting from specific positions is advantageous or disadvantageous, and tipsters factor this into their choices.
All of these considerations are factors that a horse racing must weigh up, with further factors such as odds available, betting market movement and weather conditions. Overall, there is a large amount of data to factor in when it comes to selecting the absolute best bet of the day (the NAP).
Advantages and Disadvantages of NAP Betting
Narrowing down your betting to the absolute best selection of the day seems like a great idea; however, there are both advantages and disadvantages to this approach. Below is a balanced overview of its key advantages and disadvantages:
Advantages:
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Expert Selections
NAP bets are chosen by expert tipsters who invest time in analysing various factors, such as horse form, jockey performance, and track conditions. This can reduce the burden of research for bettors and offer a more reliable starting point for a wager. -
High Confidence
Since NAP bets represent the tipster’s strongest selection, they often come with higher confidence levels compared to other tips. This can give bettors a better chance of picking a winner compared to random selections. Finding additional supporting factors, such as sectional times is a great way to build confidence in this type of selection. -
Simplified Decision Making
For those who find the vast array of betting options overwhelming, focusing on a single NAP bet simplifies the process. Fewer decisions can reduce confusion and make betting more enjoyable.
Disadvantages:
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No Guarantee of Success
Despite being a tipster’s best bet, NAP selections are still subject to the unpredictability of horse racing. Even strong analysis cannot account for unforeseen factors, such as injuries, unexpected weather changes, or tactical errors. -
Low Volume
There is far more variance in sports betting than any of us would like to believe. The best way to overcome this variance is with a high volume of value-based selections. By narrowing yourself to only one bet a day, you could actually be leaving money on the table, ignoring other available value selections. - Market Pressure
If you are following a high-profile tipster that sends out a NAP of the day, it is likely to shorten in odds very quickly. In most cases a tipsters NAP selections are odds on bets. Bettors who don’t act quickly may miss out on favourable odds and instead back at lower odds with no value due to a fear of missing out.
Should Beginners Follow NAP Bets?
For beginners, NAP bets can feel like a safe starting point because they remove a lot of guesswork. Instead of choosing from dozens of races, you’re simply backing the tipster’s strongest opinion.
However, this also comes with a risk: beginners often treat NAPs as “near certainties” which is, of course, never guaranteed. A losing NAP can feel more frustrating than a losing outsider because expectations are higher.
If you’re new to betting, NAPs work best when used sensibly:
- Stake consistently, not emotionally.
- Don’t increase stakes just because it’s a NAP.
- Focus on long-term performance, not one result.
Best NAP of the day Tipsters
Now that you understand what the term NAP actually means and where it comes from, you are probably wondering who the best NAP betting tipsters are?
There are NAP of the day selections available on the likes of OLBG and the Racing Post, however, these NAP bets are usually just used as a way to push bettors towards affiliate links. They are very rarely actually the best value bet of the day. Often they are used as a shrewd marketing tool.
In our opinion, the best NAP betting tipster is not on any of the popular betting forums or websites. It is a horse racing tipster that we reviewed ourselves and were massively impressed with the results!
Insider Edge Bets
In our opinion, one of the best horse racing tipsters that sends out selections for horse racing and greyhounds is Insider Edge Bets. Their 2 point selections are typically the NAP of the day and are almost always high-value selections that significantly beat the closing odds.
Insider Edge Bets have some extremely impressive stats:
- No losing months
- 467 points profit in 2024
- £4670 profit to £10 stakes
They also offer a free 3 day trial for anyone that wants to test out their selections.
Is Following NAP Bets A Profitable Strategy?
The honest answer is that NAP betting can be profitable, but only under the right conditions. Simply following any NAP you see online will not magically make you money. Most losses come from trusting unproven tipsters, staking too aggressively, or expecting short-term results.
Profiting over time requires more than just following NAP tips. Winning long-term demands a disciplined and strategic approach. A well-defined staking strategy ensures your bets are consistent and proportional, protecting your bankroll while maximising potential gains. Verifying the tipster you choose through your own proofing or through a trusted third party is also very important. This confirms their track record and helps you avoid unreliable sources.
Putting these elements together:
- Proofing
- Smart Staking
- Bankroll management
- Discipline
Is a solid framework for successful betting. Understanding and using NAPs is an essential step in becoming a smarter bettor. While no bet is ever a sure thing, following a proven process—like verifying tipster reliability, managing your bankroll, and using disciplined staking strategies- can significantly enhance your chances of long-term success. Remember, betting isn’t about chasing luck; it’s about informed decision-making and persistence. By applying these principles, you can turn your understanding of NAPs into a valuable tool for consistent profits.