With the World Cup in full flow I thought it would only be right to post about it!
First off, let’s get one thing straight – I know next to nothing about football and have never really followed it, for that reason I know im at a disadvantage trading it as it is one of those sports you need to know something about to make substantial profits long-term in my opinion. The upside being if I do trade it my view is not bias.
Shortly after coming across Betfair trading I spent some time playing about with laying the draw or LTD as it’s better known. Considering I didn’t have much knowledge of the teams/leagues etc I got on pretty well. I’m led to believe before it was publicised so much it was a better ‘edge’ although im sure it’ll still always be there if with good reason to use it.
In my experience finding the right games was the key to this, in short you’re looking for two things:
1. A potentially high scoring game (regardless of who will win)
2. A good price to enter at (Half time when it’s 0-0 is often good due to the time-decay of the first half)
When the time is right you Lay the Draw for your set liability (level staking is always important) and trade out after the next goal. Depending on your knowledge of the game in hand and confidence there can be an opportunity to trade out just a portion of your profit in order to accelerate the overall result….
The second strategy I have found is pretty useful (and again knowledge of the sport is important) is finding the points in the game where a price remains ‘stagnant’ particularly at a point of compression for any length of time (preferable very low odds). This allows us a window of opportunity where we can have a trade open without the ‘time decay’ experienced throughout the game eating into our bank.
Thirdly there is scalping ‘in-play’. Using this correctly it can be pretty useful although if you’re not disciplined then it could get nasty if a goal is scored. In my opinion people often get this wrong as they just attempt to scalp with the trend rather than against it!
I’ll show in the clip below although when doing this im only looking for very short-term over-reactions in the market, for example a corner, free kick etc. Those with faster feeds and at the match will have an advantage over us when such events occur although it is possible to scalp a tick or two here and there momentarily after the event has occurred.
For example a corner is given to England and so the price contracts three or four ticks, the corner is taken and cleared by the opposing team – in this instant the market will return to its original price, this is our opportunity for a quick scalp, if it is not filled in the space of a few seconds you’ll need to hedge.
Like I say, I’m not particularly a football fan and don’t claim to make thousands a month on the football although I know what conditions im looking for in terms of the market, if nothing else this will give you something to think about!!