Betfair Strategy: Common Question When Getting Started…
“How can I build up a bank to practice my trading skills but without very little risk?”
Usually this question is met on forums with comments like ‘find your own Betfair strategy’ or simply no answer at all.
But for anyone starting out, that seems near on impossible! How are you supposed to know the reason the bottom just fell out of the market? Let alone understand how to read all the graphs.
In this post not only will I give you something to start building a Betfair strategy around, and show you how to make a couple of quid for free…
If you’ve spent any time at all in the markets you will have observed all sorts of crazy happenings. What I’m about to say on the whole is pretty much common sense, but most just didn’t see it before.
Successful Betfair strategy needs to have a significant edge over the market, situation and or everyone else your playing against.
The good news is; most of these people are not even playing against you. And many don’t even have a Betfair strategy, which, is a pretty big advantage.
So with that in mind, just think about all the different kinds of people active in the market. As I mention in the Trading Guide if you have it. Everyone has a different objective for being there.
Exchange Participants: Banking a Few Quid…
Some want value, others don’t. Some have a well polished Betfair strategy, whereas others are clueless. And some have a good strategy but just can’t keep to the sequence…
Very broadly speaking there are 3 types of trade active;
- Those that seek out value for their every bet matched (Value Takers) these are the ones with a reliable Betfair strategy.
- Those that really couldn’t give a care in the world what price they get (Value Creators) generally your mug punters.
- Those that are trying to be point one but end up being point two when it goes wrong… the frustrated crowd.
Pretty obvious, right?
Of course, so making money shouldn’t be that hard. …and it’s not, its making bigger money that’s harder.
Every successful Betfair strategy has spawned from common sense, and good research or understanding. So on the basis that we have 3 groups of people out there, which one are you?
We all know that the first point is exactly who we want to be. The second we shouldn’t ever be allowing ourselves to behave like. And the third we don’t want to be, although when starting out it’ll happen at some point or another…
Cutting out the third point alone can really help results and boost your Betfair strategy’s bottom line.
If you’re seeking out value every time, then you can only ever ‘offer’ a price (sitting outside the available money). Rather than taking the available price for a match.
That’s great… so our hypothetical position is ‘offered’ in the market at 3.20 (Seem image below – Lay bet of £200).
Regardless of where the price is going, if our bet is matched we are already one tick in profit (if the price holds). Had we taken the price at 3.25, we would instantly be in one tick loss because we can’t exit at 3.25.
First important thought; over a busy days racing with 35 races, how many trades will you open?
Probably far more than 35, and that’d be the most conservative Betfair strategy known to man.
This approach may mean you miss some entries, but in comparison – you’re 35 ticks in the red already. If we use that example at £3 a tick, it’s £105 on the day. Obviously this is just to illustrate the point, but it’s a key to any Betfair strategy.
Related Article: Horse Racing Strategies
Betfair Strategy Example:
Assuming you ‘offer’ a price instead, we now have a ‘value’ entry in the market, all be it for one tick.
Get matched when the price is moving in the alternate direction and you’re onto a winner…
Being in this position is really quite a good thing. Not only have you got a favourable entry, but your in a position where, those people from bullet point 3 likely to be scrambling for an exit. Especially if they have a bad position. They award the market some value.
If they’re in a real panic, or on a larger stake (we’ve all been there) they may momentarily move the price in our favour too.
Although it happens in all markets, tennis is a good one to illustrate the point. You can even create a Betfair strategy around this concept alone.
Check out the clip below for a fuller explanation:
(early on at 1:06 I say value creators when I actually meant takers)
Betfair Strategy Clip
For some that may be a lot to digest and think about….
Growing the Bank:
If you want to build up your bank for very low risk, just do what I did in the clip!
However, it only works on small stakes (unfortunately) as the huge tennis automation clearly thought of this too.
I’ve tried but large stakes are nearly always cued up several points ahead. Larger stakes can cause their own problems on exit, so don’t get over-excited.
Check out the Video Pack Course for more help…
Really impressed with the website and its helped me no end trying to move my trading to the next level, thanks for the great vids and the guide!
Quick question – do you use bots yourself? I’ve written an app using the API to record horse racing market data with a view to testing theories but wanted to get an expert opinion on if you think its worth exploring?
For me in-play tennis trading is “holy grail”: there are humans playing, not horses, so you can SINK IN TO THE MIND of the player and predict the who is going to win/loose next game or set.
Secondly there are massive odds movements.
An interesting thought Marek…. there are human minds behind the odds pre-race too 🙂
Sure, i believe i replied? ill resend.
Hi Phil, no I don’t use bots myself 🙂
What websites do you use to do most of your research for the horse racing? I want to learn more about the horses, how they run, the jockeys, race courses before I even try to trade the pre race horse markets.
I just wanna say how much I appreciate your posts, I’ve learned a lot from them.
Keep up the good work.
Greetings from Portugal.
No problem Nuno, nice to have the feedback. Cheers. Caan
Great vid. I just tried it on the tennis myself and it worked! Can’t believe you just gave me more of an edge than i’ve ever had before and it was so damn obvious!
No problem Wayne 🙂 go easy. It’s not the most scalable one at time.
Solid vid mate, thought provoking that’s for sure…
No problems. Thinking like this is always a good place to start.
Just to let you know, I got more from this simple example than from several other examples (not yours!) and am going to give it a try this afternoon. 🙂
Hey Caan, I’ve just noticed, the headline to this piece is actually a negative! Its actually asking the question, ‘How can I lose money?’ 🙁
How can I build up a bank to practice my trading skills but without very little risk? Should be ‘with’ not ‘without’ 🙂
Hi Caan great post as usual however how do you then deal with the situation where the large money disappears as fast as it came cos it was only used to push a price ?
Great strategy. I’ll give this a try later. Thanks for sharing Caan.