I’ve often been confronted with suspicion when I tell people there isn’t really that much of a ‘secret’ to Betfair trading.
Sure, it’s not the easiest thing in the world to do for a mixture of reasons. But most of the time, traders make life hard for themselves…
If ever there were a secret it’s this – be diligent, react to changes accordingly, be measured in staking and see what the market gives you. Repeat.
In an attempt to show you, let’s take a look at an example.
My First Trade Today:
As you can see via the racing post racecard below, Deed Pole ran in the 1.20 race at Lingfield.
For context; all-weather racing is pretty bleak. Prize money is poor and making it pay for all involved is more difficult. Exchange liquidity is also lower, which sets the scene for an interesting trading environment.
Take a careful look at the traded volumes circled in the image at the top of this article, it’s significant. In this situation, disproportionate amounts of money piling onto the exchange is more noteworthy than usual. Apologies for the late screenshot but the race had gone in-play by the time took it.
The racecard also offers another clue…
Deed Pool was initially priced at 12/1 by the post, it was the first time this horse appeared in a handicap. The previous two starts were well beaten by more than 6 and 7 lengths.
Hardly a justification for heavy backing at less than half of the anticipated price…
Now I’m not going to lie, I cottoned onto this a bit late. Largely I was disappointed with how I handled the trade, it could have been far better. Proving the first of the seven struggles I previously blogged about. Catching just a small section of this deliberate move was enough though, which raises an important point.
Enough?
The allure of trading for a living is the opportunity to make good money with little effort, right? It was for me anyway.
It takes seconds to make money in trading and you only need to ride part of the wave. Being greedy is counter-productive, accepting the situation for what it is matters. I could have easily gone off on a tangent and overstaked when I realised this was an obvious move (but I’d missed half of it).
One of the biggest advantages we have is choosing when to trade, why overcomplicate it or react badly to mistakes?
As it turns out, Deed Pole wasn’t quite up to the job this time. Finishing three-quarters of a length behind the leader with a late flurry must have left backers frustrated.
Either way, I’m sure I wasn’t the only trader thankful for their mini-gamble!