Betting on sports can be fun, but if you want to be a success it’s important to understand what closing line value is and why it matters so much…
There are many different strategies to mathematically secure profitable bets. At the core of all of them is probability and Closing Line Value (CLV).
So, here we’re going to explain a few core principles that you must understand.
What is Closing Line Value?
Closing line value (CLV) is a term used in sports betting that refers to the difference between the initial betting odds at the time the bet is placed and the final odds as the event starts. It’s very important because it’s one of the most accurate ways to define a bettor’s profitability.
For example, let’s say that DraftKings sportsbook initially offers odds of +200 on a team to win a football game. This means that for every $100 bet, the bettor would win an additional $200 if the team wins. However, as the game gets closer and more information becomes available, DraftKings adjust the odds to +250. At the time the game starts, the market is best informed and the odds are at their most accurate. This is known as the closing line.
If a bettor places a bet on this team at the closing line of +250, they are getting more value for their bet than they would have if they had placed the bet at the initial line of +200. This is because they are receiving better odds and therefore have a higher payout on their bet.
All successful strategies rely on getting a bigger payout than the bet is truly worth, period. It’s how we win long-term. It’s also why arbitrage betting works so well, it’s an exploit on value.
Why is Closing Line Value Important?
The closing line value is important because it helps you measure the value of your bet. It helps you understand if it was at a positive expected value or not. By comparing the CLV with your bets, you can measure how successful your bets were. It helps you to determine if your betting strategy is working.
If you find that you’re consistently getting better odds than the closing line, it means your strategy is working – you’re making smart bets.
To get the most out of your betting, it’s important to keep track of CLV and use it to your advantage. It’s way better than relying on gut instinct…
Another way to easily exploit value is through the exploitation of sportsbook promotions, check out our profit duel review to see exactly how it’s done.
One way to make sure you’re getting the best value for your bets is via line shopping software, don’t settle for anything less than the best price!
Closing Lines and Line Shopping:
Line shopping is the practice of comparing odds at different bookmakers in order to find the best value for a bet. By shopping around and looking for the best closing line values, you increase your potential profits.
Check out the image below, via the OddsJam moneyline interface:
The best line values here are highlighted in red. Prophet Exchange has the best Brooklyn Nets price whilst FanDuel is best on the 76ers.
Picking these prices doesn’t guarantee that you’ll beat the closing line, although it does increase your chances. There are alternate software features on OddsJam that will help you get additional value, but that’s not the point of focus here.
Closing line value is a really important metric in sports betting because it’s the best benchmark of success. By line shopping and tracking the closing line, you’ve got a far better chance of finding value and winning more money. Thanks for taking the time to read our article, check out the following review next.