It’s no secret that match-fixing does happen in football. If you had the foresight to know that these games were fixed beforehand, there is the potential to make large profits!
In this week’s YouTube video, I looked at how to find fixed football matches Covering what to look for within the market and what league to focus on.
Check it out below…
Timestamps:
- 0:56 How can we spot fixed football matches?
- 3:49 Identify fixed football games with analytical data
- 4:48 Explanation of market volumes broadly speaking
- 7:42 Fixed match scammers to watch out for
How To Find Fixed Football Matches?
Let me start by saying it’s important to find legitimate ways to find these games. You’re not going to be successful listening to some random account on Social Media, as you saw in the video with the scammers!
Neither should you be paying random websites money for 100% guaranteed fixed games.
We need tofocus on certain leagues where match-fixing is more likely to happen. Then look at the market data.
Following the market movements is key here. As they say, money talks!
You might see a lot of noise on Social Media saying “that game was fixed, that player is corrupt” etc. The majority of these angry fans or sports bettors vending their frustration at a loss. You’re never going to see fixes in the likes of the Premier League because the players and managers are paid too much.
If you want to find suspicious games look past the big leagues. Focus on the smaller leagues like Serie B, Greece’s second division or the Turkish Super League for example.
That being said, there was a major match fixing scandal in Serie A that saw Juventus relegated to Serie B. They were also stripped of the 2006 Serie A title. That’s probably the most high-profile case of match-fixing in recent football history.
Note how there was a huge investigation into that scandal, and it went on for years. However, in the smaller leagues this doesn’t happen. Perhaps it’s not worth the time and effort for the authorities to investigate.
We likely see major betting moves, but most people turn a blind eye. That’s why it’s good to focus on the smaller leagues – the players are paid less and there is also less scrutiny. It’s estimated around 300 games per game are fixed in Europe.
Betting On Fixed Football Matches:
If you trade on Betfair, then you generally believe the starting price of an event to be the true probability.
There is always however exceptions to this rule based on very low volume, but when a “proper” amount of money has gone through the market the price generally reflects the chance. For example, if Man City start at 2.0 at home to Liverpool, then they will more or less win that game 50% of time if it was played over and over. Professional Betfair traders will take the Betfair starting price as the true probability.
If that is the case, then it begins to get easier to spot when the market is wrong. When there is too much money on one outcome and something is “off.” That’s where weight of money comes into reading the charts. For example, let’s imagine Man City are 2.0 to win in an upcoming game. 2.0 in decimal odds equals an estimated 50% win chance This means that in theory 50% of the traded volume should be traded on Man City.
The market is just a reflection of the wisdom of the crowd after all. If you want to know more how this works we suggest you read this blog.
Sometimes however when more money is on one election and the price is moving downwards. They will have a greater traded amount of volume matched then the odds indicate they should have.
Where you’re likely to find fixing football matches is when the volume doesn’t match up with the price. There is too much money put on one outcome, for example, you could see 15% of the traded volume on something that’s 21.0 and this stands out, as explained in the video.
Especially if this is in a lower-league market that usually is not attracting much attention from the betting public.
When a Draw Favours Both Teams
The most likely scenario you will be able to pick up on as an everyday sports bettor/trader. Is when the draw suits both football teams towards the end of the season in football and also in cup football. This is not a fixed game as such, however, they have a situation every single season when both teams are happy to settle for a draw.
A good tactic is to look at the league table towards the end of the season when there are only a few matches remaining. Find match selections where both teams would benefit from a draw.
For example a point could help one team avoid relegation and secure a playoff place for another. After that you would check the market on Betfair and see if more money then usual was being matched on the draw. If you can spot a few days this early you can normally get ahead of the market and watch as the price shortens closer to kick off.
This is an excellent football strategy to use if you are looking for games where the draw odds are likely to shorten in price. The games themselves may not be fixed however if both teams benefit from the draw and at 60 minutes the score is 0-0. It is likely that neither team are going to go all out and risk a loss.
Profiling these games early can give you a big advantage.
Profitable Football Strategy
While finding fixed football matches can be very profitable, it really isn’t a good long-term strategy. Despite there being an estimated 300 per year in Europe, there’s always going to be an element of trying to guess what the teams are doing when the market moves.
There are also times when match fixers may fake moves before the match. In order to get more money matched on the right side just before kick off when liquidity for lower league games is at its highest.
Plus, do you want to be trading in a market where clearly someone knows more than you?
It’s profitable when it goes your way, but it’s also a pretty dangerous way to trade. In the long-term, you are much better off sticking to some proper football trading strategy. For example, multiple strategies in my Football Course work in every league. There is far more liquidity in the big leagues, and no match-fixing so it makes sense to trade these leagues week-in-week-out using the same reliable strategies to build your bank.
Related: 4 Simple Betfair Football Trading Strategies That Work…