The Champions League Semi-Final second legs arrive this week! Two cracking ties, and definitely some trading angles to exploit.
AC Milan and Inter Milan meet on Tuesday night where Inter take a 2-0 lead into the game, while Manchester City host Real Madrid on Wednesday with the sides level at 1-1 after the first leg in Madrid…
I have to say going into the first legs I kept an open mind trading-wise. It was hard to know what to expect from an all Serie A affair; possibly a cagey affair but then we had that lightning-quick start. Under 2.5 goals backers still collected though, after hiding behind the couch for most of the game. Last time Manchester City and Real Madrid played a first leg we saw seven goals. This time it was a cagey affair though.
With targets known, the second legs might be easier to trade. I’m going to run through my thoughts for both ties below;
Inter Milan v AC Milan – 8pm Tuesday
- Inter Milan 2.16
- AC Milan 4.0
- Draw 3.45
If you’re a fan of expected goals (xG), there’s only one winner here and that’s Inter Milan. It’s clear to see that AC Milan haven’t been playing their best football lately. Another loss in Serie A at the weekend was a hammer blow for their top four hopes too. Their recent xG figures have been 1.05, 0.93, 1.22, 1.75, 1.29 and 0.87. Nothing special there in my opinion, and if Inter can shut up shop I wouldn’t be surprised to see them keep a clean sheet.
I’ll be staying out of the match odds market in the first half, and I’ll look to get on Inter in the second half when AC Milan start getting desperate. The trade I like here is he early Under 2.5 goals trade. Fortune might favour the brave here after a very early goal in the first leg would have been a massive setback for this tactic last week. However, I can’t see Inter starting positively here – they will want this game to be as boring and dull as possible. Under 2.5 goals is starting from a nice high point of 1.8, and I feel we can get to 1.6 quite quickly. I quite fancy this trade! AC Milan are struggling to create chances and Inter have a two goal lead to protect; it ticks a lot of boxes.
Manchester City v Real Madrid 8pm Wednesday
- Manchester City 1.64
- Real Madrid 5.6
- Draw 4.6
The odds are a little insulting to Real Madrid here, aren’t they? I mean, City are fantastic but there wasn’t much between the sides in the first leg. City only created an xG of 0.37. With home advantage here they should improve, and they have been hammering everyone in the Premier League recently too. Real Madrid are a world-class side for the big games. They are going to turn up here in my opinion.
I see two trading options heading into this game. The “value opinion” play is laying City because I expect a closer game than the odds suggest. That is risky though, because we all know how good City are up front etc. I want to watch the opening 15/20 minutes here and see how the play develops. I reckon we get plenty of goals here and I’d be keen on backing some fancy prices on Overs or the Correct Score outcomes if we get an early goal. Whoever scores here, the other side will just attack. It might be cagey until a goal comes, however, so I am keeping an open mind. The 1.64 on City is too short, but the best trading option is getting on goals if we get one early. I wouldn’t mind backing 2-2 if it’s 1-0 to either side at the break for example.
There are plenty more Correct Score Strategies and trading strategies in the Football Course, which is on sale and less than half-price at the moment! Best of luck this week.