In the next few months as football fans, we are going to be treated to a number of finals…
- Champions League
- Europa League
- FA Cup
- Women’s World Cup
Are all going to be played out along with finals from all around the European football leagues…
But when it comes to trading football finals, what are the things that you need to be aware of?
Neutral Ground – Form Goes Out Of The Window
One of the most common ways to trade football is to look at statistics and team form. Statistical sites such as footy stats and soccerstats can give us data which indicates how teams perform at home and away.
Many football traders will look at goal times, xg models or possesion distribution to give themselves a better understanding of what is likely to happen in a game.
Cup finals however are played on neutral ground. Which leaves us as football bettors without the usual data we may normally rely on.
How then can we trade football finals on Betfair?
Psychoff and Paulo Rebelo Approach
Two footballer traders that have made big money from the football markets on Betfair are Paulo Rebelo and Psychoff.
Something that both Psychoff and Rebelo have in common alongside being very profitable football traders, is that they both recommend watching live video in order to find an edge in the football markets. In fact, Psychoff has stated that often he doesn’t look at any form stats or data when he trades football. He looks to trade what he is seeing without any bias.
Relying on years and years of watching football matches alongside the Betfair markets.
Trading Finals On Betfair – What To Look For:
When it comes to trading a football final. Trading what you see on the pitch can be an effective strategy.
There is often a different tempo to football finals with the variables differing from a normal league game.
Let’s address some of these variables!
Whilst the tempo of a final may start very quickly if it hits the 60-minute mark and the tie is still goal less. Every minute that starts to tick afterwards brings extra time closer and closer.
This can mean that teams start to take fewer risks with a fear of conceding a late goal. Preserving energy also starts to enter player’s minds.
Knowing this, If we see the tempo start to drop looking at the under’s market could be a good option.
Momentum Shifts In Match Odds:
Due to the neutral venue, match odds can change very quickly based on how the game begins.
For example in the FA Cup final we have Man City vs Man Utd, with current odds looking like this:
- Man City at 1.57
- Draw at 4.9
- Man Utd at 5.0
If Man Utd have a positive start in the first 10 minutes, creating chances having better possession stats. That will likely cause a quick adjustment in the odds to reflect that. Man Utd odds would shorten whilst Man City would drift.
Due mainly to two things:
- The concentration of money on a final (no other games competing for liquidity).
- Lack of data for teams competing at a neutral venue.
Nothing To Lose:
Another aspect to consider is if a team is only losing by one goal and the game is entering its last 20-15 minutes. Then it is likely there is going to be a large push for the last goal, which can often leave them open to a counterattack.
A good strategy to look for in this scenario is to oppose the favourite. As the market is going to favour a comeback. If you can see that the favourite is pushing forward very aggressively and leaving openings for a counter.
Then lay bet the favourite or backing the leading underdog should be considered.
The other benefit of this trade is that favourites will often start to drift rapidly with every missed chance, injury stoppage, and loss of possession. Again due to the large volume of money, these games attract and the number of people that exit their positions as the fav struggles to get the comeback.