I don’t have time so much anymore, but I used to update front-running horses on twitter daily.
Seeing I’m up early with the tennis, here’s a quick front-running post ahead of today.
3 Front-Running Horses
Front-running horses are of interest for one reason; they’re often the visual point of interest to racing coverage.
Why does this matter?
For several reasons; first off, where the crowd goes there’s plenty of activity, naturally bringing over-reactions. It amazes me how after all the time Betfair has been around, the market still spasms into a frenzy when a horse bolts off ahead at the start.
When the market becomes scared or greedy value often changes hands. The trick is to be the one calmly waiting on the sidelines…
It’s not unusual for front-running horses to trade lower than perhaps they should have in-running as well. I’m not a fan of laying first once a race is off, although maybe there’s an in-play trading strategy to be developed through this kind of thinking. If I were to lay first, I’d only want to take short odd (odd-on at least).
Why? I’m not a fan of risk.
It’s not just the horse in question though, the rest of the market has to be proportionate to any one runners price. This can make things a little tricky. Regardless of if you’re backing to lay, dobbing or just looking for a value entry it’s important to check out the rest of the field. And if it’s a jumps race, watch the start…
Potential Leaders Running Today
Today there’s only a few front-running horses of interest as far as I can see. The lead-up to a race can be quite telling and things may change so watch out though! It’s an all-important edge you have as a manual trader. I mean, the automation doesn’t read into a trainer stating they intend to change this runners ‘running style’ for the race. Nor can it see a horse’s behaviour at the start, or if the race has been delayed, or by how long.
First up in the 1.20 is Boagrius. Positive being; the last 3 runs this horse has led every time. I put it in my notifications as a keen type at the start. The downside being the race itself has a few unknowns. And the choice is a fairly short price (from a back to lay perspective I prefer them to be higher). The start at Ludlow should give a few extra clues.
Not a die-hard front-runner, but the situation looks more ideal than the others (1.45 Thurles). Westerner Point has a history of tracking the leaders and sometimes leading, but the pace looks weak. Excluding any others forging to the front, a soft advantage could be gifted. You’ll probably know before the start, or within the first few seconds if this is to happen. Stealing a few ticks may not be so hard. Unfortunately this runner holds the favourites chance in this market though, currently at 3.30 it could be a little short to play for any more than a quick-skim.
Finally Truckers Highway looks the most of interest at 9.2 in the market (currently). Often leading, if not very close to it. Price-range appeals too, only downside being the rest of the runners. One or two are also known to be a little keen. Truckers Highway is another notification for me, I’ll make my mind up nearer to the start. Mainly because of Vital Evidence, another keen runner.
Maybe I’m being a little optimistic, but as a recent faller the horse might not be so keen to get on with things. I guess we’ll see…
Either way, good luck and remember to be cautious. It’s all about limiting the risk, the opportunities will do the rest if you’re defensive enough!