Glorious Goodwood is almost upon us with trading conditions changing once more…
Are you ready? Don’t get caught out, it’s time to capitalize.
This short article shares five key points that’ll help you over the next week (August 1st to Saturday 5th 2023).
1. More Profit From Less Risk
Not all trading opportunities are created equal, so why focus on anything but the best?
At Goodwood, the markets behave a bit differently from the usual bread-and-butter horse racing markets. Turning up that bit earlier for the Glorious Goodwood card alone is wise. The betting activity starts that bit earlier, keep an eye on the weight of money. Plus there’s more money traded on the bigger prices.
Focusing on the earlier market activity for clues in sentiment is an advantage. Regardless of your trading style, having that additional liquidity to work with is good. At the very worst, it means you’ll be able to dump your position without chasing the market around.
Staring on the bigger Goodwood races earlier is more profitable and less risky than chasing around those in-between meetings.
2. Timing Trading Volumes
Timing is paramount, which is why I want to draw your attention to betting activity.
The hype and build-up to racing starts a little earlier (much like Ascot and Cheltenham). See the image below…
I’ve colour-coded the market activity to highlight my point:
- Blue – prior to the live shows
- Orange – last 15 minutes to post time
- Green – after the scheduled race time
Typically that middle period of activity starts a lot later. For those who are Betfair scalping, there’s more scope to start earlier. Focusing on genuine liquidity is the best way to limit risk.
3. Double Trouble:
This happens all the time, although big events like Glorious Goodwood draw more attention to it in the media.
Look out for those doubles and trebles. Bookmakers take significant liabilities on various combinations, if one of them starts to play out, the next selection is lined with gold…
There’s a full blog post on jockey trainer gambles here to save me from repeating myself, check it out after this one!
…whatever you do, don’t get caught on the wrong side of such a trend.
4. Stand-Out Opportunity
The weather can really shift the markets at Goodwood. There’s a certain level of expectation about the weather and watering at the track. However, if the rain should come, it’ll throw things up in the air. Previously I’ve seen plenty of speculation about horses being withdrawn when the weather deteriorates. If they run but the ground isn’t ideal for them, you just might see a drift. So be aware and look out for it…
To be clear; it doesn’t necessarily mean a horse’s price will drift every time it runs on unfavourable ground. It’s merely a clue that makes for an easier trading decision in the moment.
Obviously, a horse is less likely to steam in such circumstances, sometimes we over-complicate these things.
5. External Influence Beyond Racing
It’s a busy time of year and there’s plenty of other sporting events and outside influences. It’s easy to get tunnel vision and just assume that everyone’s eyes are on the racing.
This is not always the case…
Major football tournaments and other sporting events have influenced liquidity and the markets in previous years. It varies year on year, but it’s worth bearing in mind. If another popular sporting event is kicking off during a racecard, it affects the markets. This is something we cover in the video pack course. This year it looks like less of an issue but it’s worth bearing in mind – horse racing fans often follow other sports, although other sports fans rarely jump over to the racing instead. Particularly as the interest in horse racing declines.
However, you tackle the markets this week, good luck!